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Westpac Banking Corporation now no longer expects RBA rate cut in February, pushes out cut forecast to April and expects a further cut in August 2020.

  • “Due to the surprise back to back fall in the unemployment rate in November and December, we expect the RBA will delay the next rate cut until April.”

Aussie jobs data

  • December Unemployment Rate: 5.1% vs 5.2% expected/prior – bullish! RBA odds of rate cut will be falling on this data. 
  • December Employment +28.9K vs+15.0k expected, vs 39.9k prior. 
  • December Full Time Employment -0.3K vs 4.2k prior.
  • December Participation Rate +66.0% vs 66.0% expected.

Full report

Australia’s trend unemployment rate decreased to 5.1 per cent in December 2019, according to the latest information released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today.

ABS Chief Economist Bruce Hockman said: “In December 2019, the trend unemployment rate decreased slightly to 5.1 per cent, its lowest level since April 2019.”

In December 2019, trend monthly employment increased by around 18,000 people. Both full-time and part-time employment increased by around 9,000 people.

Over the past year, trend employment increased by around 261,000 people (2.1 per cent), which continued to be above the average annual growth over the past 20 years (2.0 per cent).

Full-time employment growth (1.5 per cent) was below the average annual growth over the past 20 years (1.6 per cent) and part-time employment growth (3.2 per cent) was above the average annual growth over the past 20 years (3.0 per cent).

The bullish channel is still intact

Meanwhile, bulls will now be hoping for a positive Consumer Price Index outcome (30.Jan) ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia, 4th Feb.

The price of the Aussie has been supported at channel support and are largely in range of yesterday’s analysis ahead o the event as follows: AUD/USD Price Analysis: The price action and levels to look for on Aussie jobs

Update AUD/USD price analysis

More to come…