What goes down, must go up

What goes down, must go up!!  The EUR is higher this morning, as the market seems to be going after the USD following the FOMC meeting where rates were left unchanged at 0-0.25%.  The FED maintained their commitment to keeping rates low until the middle of 2015 and will continue the $40 billion per month open-ended QE3 program.

The accompanying statement stated that the FED showed concern that “without further policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions.”

These statements were apparently enough to get the EUR to strengthen against the USD and the JPY, as the single currency has once again jumped above the 1.3000 level.  Without much news on the Euro front today, traders will focus on the US Durable Goods Orders release later this morning.  Traders took advantage of “weak short” positions to run stops and move the currency higher during the Asian trading session.  While some may get “excited” above the change in “big figures”, we remain stuck within the 1.2810 – 1.3172 trading range and there will be no excitement until that changes.  Two things seem to be driving the EUR these days. One is Spain and the other is QE3.  With no surprises on either, the market remains hopelessly rangebound.

In other currency news, the Japanese Yen fell to its lowest leve in four months against the USD as the currency flirted with the 80.20 resistance level.  As I write this, USD/JPY is once again up near 80.20.  The move is due to speculation that the Bank of Japan will expand monetary stimulus at their meeting next week.  A news item in the Nikkei newspaper reported that the BOJ will look to increase their asset purchase program by 10 trillion JPY, bringing the purchase amount to 90 trillion JPY.  According to traders, if the BOJ eases after the FED and ECB didn’t the market would sell JPY.

The commodity currencies, AUD and CAD seem to be going in opposite directions at the present.  While the AUD is testing resistance at the 1.0400 level, being buoyed by good news out of China and New Zealand, who left their rates unchanged at 2.5% as expected, the Canadian Dollar is under pressure after comments by Bank of Canada governor Carney.  His comments that “the caser for adjustment of interest rates has become less imminent” differ from the bank’s statement on Tuesday following the BOC meeting.  USD/CAD rose to test the .9950 resistance area, before retreating back towards the .9900 level.

Asian equity markets were mixed overnight.  European equity markets are all higher this morning and DOW Futures are positive indicating a higher opening for the US equity markets later this morning.

The markets remain rangebound.  There does not seem to be any indication that this is going to change anytime soon.

Matthew Lifson

Matthew Lifson

Matthew Lifson is a Foreign Exchange Trader and a Market Analyst. with Cambridge Mercantile Group.