According to Bloomberg, several key issues are on the rise across the commodity spectrum as Middle East concerns clash with rising trade tensions between the US and China.
Key quotes
“It’s getting ugly out there. Commodities are getting shaken up as investors fret about the fall-out from the global trade war, and as the White House turns up the heat against Iran. President Donald Trump just fired off a blunt, tweeting a threat to counterpart Hassan Rouhani, and U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo upped the ante with his own remarks in California.
Against that backdrop, this week is one of the busiest of the quarter as earnings pour in. Big Oil heads the list, with Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Exxon Mobil Corp. among those reporting. With base metals under pressure and gold offering little haven, watch for outlooks from Freeport-McMoRan Inc., Anglo American Plc, Barrick Gold Corp. and Newmont Mining Corp. Rounding out the picture, we’ll see how crops are doing on both sides of the Atlantic.
Commodity investors will have their attention fixed on Iran this week and into August after Donald Trump’s all-caps threat to the leadership of the major oil producer, and his counterpart’s earlier warning that any conflict would be the “mother of all wars.” Brent crude slipped after rising as much as 2 percent Monday. There are likely to be plenty more verbal barbs in the coming days. Secretary of State Pompeo has an opportunity for comment on Iran later Monday after a consultation with his Australian counterparts; on Tuesday he’ll host a Ministerial to Advance Religious Freedom event in Washington; and then midweek he’s speaking to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Early August sees the initial 90-day deadline for tightened sanctions against Tehran.
After six straight weeks of declines, copper and other metals will be in focus again, as assets that have become a lightning rod for concerns about the growing fallout from a global trade war. China’s policy response will be key here, as investors wait to see whether it will offer some support to the yuan, which has slumped in lockstep with copper over the past few weeks. Top gold producers Barrick and Newmont are among the companies turning in their report cards for the second quarter at a time when the price of the precious metal is languishing at a one-year low. Investors will be looking for clues on how miners are managing costs and their progress in paring debt.
Earnings this week from two of the top producers of diggers and dump trucks will offer valuable clues on how commodity demand is looking as trade tensions rise. Figures from Japan’s Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., which reports on Wednesday, and Komatsu Ltd. two days later are especially useful as they come before U.S. giant Caterpillar Inc. announces results on July 30.
As if global trade tensions weren’t enough to worry the world’s farmers, dodgy weather is making their life difficult too. Heatwaves and drought in northern Europe have hurt wheat, barley and other crops, while production in France, the European Union’s top grower, is expected to shrink due to excessive rains. Put together, the bloc’s wheat output is poised to be the smallest in six years, according to Strategie Grains. A Monday report by the bloc’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit will shed further light on the extent of the damage.”
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