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Overview of NZ jobs report (Q3)

NZ traders are getting  set for New Zealand jobs data which is due at   8:45am  Syd ( locally 10:45am) – or 21.45 GMT. The unemployment rate is expected at 4.5%, with a soft print for LCI wages (0.4%), after Q2’s minimum-wage induced boost.   Analysts at Westpac agree  with the consensus forecast of a 0.5%qtr rise in jobs but they see room for a negative surprise on the unemployment rate, looking for it to rise from 4.5% to 4.6% rather than  dip  to 4.4%. “Also worth noting in NZ is the RBNZ survey of inflation expectations (1pm  Syd/10am Sing/HK),” or 02:00 GMT, “which was 2.04%yr in Q3,” the analysts added.  

“The effect of the inflation picking up to 1.9% during the September quarter is expected to be negative on real, inflation-adjusted wages. This contradicts with the development over the past few years when nominal wages outpaced the inflation in support of the household purchasing power.

The New Zealand labor market report is important for the RBNZ policymakers, that want to see broad-based nominal wages growth in order to meet their inflation objective, which is expected to occur only gradually,”

Mario Blascak, PhD, Editor in Chief at FXStreet explained in an earlier  preview:  The NZ employment and RBNZ Preview: Rates could go up or down depending on incoming data

 

How could the data affect NZD/USD?

  • Support 0.6550
  • Resistance 0.6690

On a  strong print in details of the full report, bulls will target a break of 0.6688 as the recent double tops highs that guard R3 0.6722 and double top highs of 27th Aug 0.6727. On the wide, 138.2% is located at 0.6775 ahead of the 161.8% that meets the June 20 low at 0.6826 ahead of the double top July-Aug highs at 0.6850/60. On the flipside, bears can target the  23.6% Fibo at 0.6635 while ahead of 0.6601 and the 38.2% Fibo. 0.6550 is where the 61.8% retracement falls.

Key notes:

  • The NZ employment and RBNZ Preview: Rates could go up or down depending on incoming data
  • NZD/USD at a cross-roads: It’s now all about (US elections) NZ jobs
  • High uncertainty around the US Mid-term Elections set to rock the US Dollar

About NZ unemployment rate:

The Unemployment Rate released by the  Statistics New Zealand  is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the New Zealand labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the New Zealand economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).