The US Economic Data Overview
Wednesday’s US economic docket highlights the releases of the preliminary Q3 GDP report, Durable Goods Orders and Initial Weekly Jobless Claims, scheduled at 13:30 GMT. The US economy is anticipated to have recorded a strong annualized growth of 33.2% during the July-September quarter, slightly higher than the advance estimates of 33.1%.
Separately, the US Durable Goods Orders are expected to have increased by 0.9% in October as compared to 1.9% previous. Orders ex-transportation are forecast to increase by 0.4% and Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex-aircraft are projected to rise by 0.5% during the reported monthly.
Meanwhile, Initial Jobless Claims are forecast to drop to 730,000 during the week ended November 20, down from the previous week’s reading of 742,000. Continuing Claims are expected to drop notably to 6.02 million from 6.372 million.
How could the data affect EUR/USD?
Barring any immediate market reaction, the data is unlikely to be a major game-changer for the USD and do little to provide any meaningful impetus to the EUR/USD pair. Given that investors have been speculating for additional monetary easing by the Fed, the focus will remain on the latest FOMC meeting minutes, due later during the US session. The minutes will be closely scrutinized for any such action in December, which should influence the near-term USD price dynamics and help determine the next leg of a directional move for the major.
Meanwhile, Yohay Elam, Analyst at FXStreet offered a brief technical outlook for the major and writes: “Euro/dollar is eyeing the 1.1920 level mentioned earlier. Momentum on the four-hour chart is to the upside, the pair is trading above the 50, 100 and 200 Simple Moving Averages and the Relative Strength Index is shying away from the 70 level – thus outside overbought conditions. The bulls are in full control.”
Yohay further provided important technical levels to trade the pair: “Above 1.1920, the next level to watch is 1.1960, which played a role in September. The yearly high of 1.2010 is next. Support awaits at 1.1895, which capped euro/dollar earlier this month, followed by 1.1850, a support line seen last week. Further down, 1.1820 and 1.1770 await EUR/USD.”
Key Notes:
• US GDP Preview: Good reasons for an upside surprise, but not necessarily a dollar surge
• US Durable Goods Orders October Preview: Unemployment, what unemployment?
• US Initial Jobless Claims Preview: Turn that rear-view mirror around
• EUR/USD Forecast: Break or bounce at critical resistance? Bulls look strong, data eyed
About the US Economic Data
The Gross Domestic Product Annualized released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced within a country in a given period of time. GDP Annualized is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country’s economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative.
The Durable Goods Orders, released by the US Census Bureau, measures the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, such as motor vehicles and appliances. As those durable products often involve large investments they are sensitive to the US economic situation. The final figure shows the state of US production activity. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the USD.
The Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. In other words, it provides a measure of strength in the labor market. A larger than expected number indicates weakness in this market which influences the strength and direction of the US economy. Generally speaking, a decreasing number should be taken as positive or bullish for the USD.
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