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US retail sales overview

Friday’s US economic docket highlights the key release of monthly retail sales figures, scheduled at 1230 GMT. Consensus estimates point to a solid 0.4% m/m rise in August, a slight moderation from 0.5% growth recorded in the previous month.

Meanwhile, core retail sales (excluding automobiles), which advanced 0.6% in July, are projected to have grown by 0.5% on a monthly basis and the closely watched Retail Sales Control Group is seen expanding by 0.4% m/m during the reported period.

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street’s proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. In the last five releases, the EUR/USD pair moved, on an average, 30-pips in the 15-minutes after the data release and 52-pips in the following 4-hours.

How could it affect EUR/USD?

Yohay Elam, FXStreet’s own Analyst explains, “1.1660 was the peak last week. It is followed by the round number of 1.1600. The trough of the week at 1.1565 provides further support and the last level is 1.1530, a triple bottom.”

“The August high of 1.1735 is an important level to watch. The quadruple top of 1.1750 capped the pair in July and awaits close by. Next, 1.1850 was the peak the EUR/USD reached on June 14th, before Draghi sent it tumbling down,” he added further.

Key Notes

“¢    US Retail Sales preview: falling consumer confidence hints a poor outcome

“¢    How to trade the US Retail Sales Control Group with EUR/USD

“¢    EUR/USD Forecast: Enjoying a happy Friday but entering overbought conditions

About US retail sales

The Retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly per cent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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