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US retail sales overview

Wednesday’s US economic docket highlights the release of monthly retail sales figures, scheduled at 1230 GMT. Consensus estimates point to a modest 0.1% m/m rise in July as compared to a 0.5% growth reported in the previous month. Meanwhile, core retail sales, which exclude automobiles, are projected to have grown by 0.3% on a monthly basis and the control group sales are seen expanding by 0.4% m/m during the reported month.

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street’s proprietary deviation impact map of the event below and as observed, the reaction in case of a relative deviation of -1.0369 or less, the pair may go up reaching a range of 40-pips in the first 15-minutes and 73-pips in the following 4-hours.

Alternatively, the reaction to a higher than expected reading, with a relative deviation of 0.75 or higher could be in the range of 38-pips in the first 15-minutes and 79-pips in the following 4-hours.

How could it affect EUR/USD?

Yohay Elam, FXStreet’s own Analyst explains, “1.1430 was a swing high on August 14th. 1.1508 is a critical level after serving as the 2018 low for a long time. 1.1530 was a support line in early August.”

“1.1365 was the low point on August 13th. 1.1300 is a round number and a range separator from July 2017. Further down, 1.1220 was a support line last year,” he adds further.

Key Notes

   “¢    US Retail Sales preview: another solid reading to keep the greenback running

   “¢    EUR/USD Forecast: waiting for US data at yearly lows

   “¢    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Next stop in the downtrend at 1.1188

About US retail sales

The Retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly per cent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).