When is Aussie GDP and how could it affect AUD/USD?


Aussie GDP overview

While the Aussie has been the worst performer in overnight markets, with sentiment weighing on trade-related currencies, EM-FX and commodities, traders will get a slice of action today in Australia’s Q1 GDP data that is due at 11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK. or 01.30 GMT.

Analysts at Westpac explained that the expectations have risen after the various partial data over the past week or two:

“Indeed, if growth is 1.1%qtr as Westpac forecasts, it would be the strongest quarter since Q4 2011. To be sure, this is partly a rebound from the dismal 0.4% in Q4 2017; specifically, net exports look to have swung from a -0.5 percentage point subtraction from growth to a 0.3ppt contribution. Consensus is 0.9%qtr, 2.8%yr. The gap with Westpac’s forecast may be on household consumption, where we concede downside risks if the saving rate doesn’t fall further, given that it was not a great quarter for retailers. 

A gain of 1.1% should produce annual growth of 3.0%yr, which would obviously be very welcome in Canberra and at the RBA, where forecasts are for 3+% growth this year and the next. But Australia has managed a grand total of one quarter (Q2 2016) with annual growth at or above 3% since 2012. We expect that it will remain difficult to maintain growth at this pace.”

How might Aussie GDP affect AUD/USD

AUD/USD fell from 0.7650 early London to 0.7595 early NY before trimming losses to around 0.7615 for the session’s close. The pair, however, has maintained its stature above the descending channel price action and is perched upon support from the descending 50-D SMA, currently located at 0.7605. Bulls have eyes towards the 100-D SMA at 0.7737, while a negative outcome will put sights back towards the channels ranges and 10-D SMA at 0.7565 ahead of 0.7475.

Key notes:

About Aussie GDP

The Gross Domestic Product released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Australia. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the economic activity and health. A rising trend has a positive effect on the AUD, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish) for the AUD.

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