Today we have the release of Australian Gross Domestic Product at the top of the hour.
After the release of key partial indicators this week, analysts at ANZ Bank expect GDP to have bounced 3.0% Q/Q in Q3.
”This would leave GDP 3.9% below year-ago levels.”
”Consistent with the run of better-than-expected partial economic indicators, the forecast bounce in Q3 GDP is larger than we had anticipated a few months ago.”
”While the extended lockdown in Melbourne will weigh on growth, the recovery in other states has been impressive.”
Meanwhile, analysts at Westpac said that the second half of the year sees the virus under control locally (but only after the 2nd lockdown in Victoria) and restrictions being reversed.
”We expect Q3 GDP to expand by 3.0% (-3.9% year) but with plenty of scope for surprise and risks tilted downwards. The median forecast is 2.5%Q, -4.4% year.”
How might the GDP affect AUD/USD
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AUD/USD recovers back towards daily highs around 0.7370 ahead of key GDP data
Following the central bank’s interest rate decision, where the Board decided to maintain the policy settings it adopted at the November Board meeting, AUD/USD has enjoyed a risk-on rally.
AUD/USD is already testing 0.7380s and the end of November consolidation period.
The US dollar has been under pressure as well due to the prospects of easier dollars on the back of the Federal Reserve and fiscal stimulus.
So, whether this data can make a material difference is wholly dependent on what aspect of the Australian narrative the market is focussed.
A rebound from the economic recession confirmed in today’s data should underpin the currency, however, there is potentially more of focus on the RBA governor Phillip Lowe.
Lowe is before the Parliament Economic Committee and markets are looking to see if there is a shift away from its relaxed stance on the relatively strong AUD.
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RBA’s Lowe: Prepared to do more if it is required
Description of Gross Domestic Product
The Gross Domestic Product released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Australia. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the economic activity and health. A rising trend has a positive effect on the AUD, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish) for the AUD.
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