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Bank of Japan Press Conference overview

Tuesday sees the Bank of Japan (BoJ) coming in for a landing with their latest Monetary Policy Statement and Outlook Report at 02:00 GMT, with a press conference to be held by the BoJ’s Governor Kuroda, expected sometime after 02:30 GMT, but no specific time has been set. As noted by FXStreet’s own Yohay Elam, movement from the BoJ on bond-buying led traders to once again suspect a ‘stealth taper’ from the Japanese central bank, but expectations of an early exit from stimulus programs could again slap the hands of over-eager JPY traders: “the BOJ has been reducing its bond buys of late, allowing the 10-year yield to edge up above the 0% target. This triggered speculation that the Tokyo-based institution is making a “stealth” withdrawal from its extraordinarily loose monetary policy. However, the BOJ may be cutting commercial banks some slack. Meager rates hurt banks’ profits.  The BOJ’s primary goal is reaching a core inflation level of 2%, and with sub 1% levels on all the various measures, the Bank still has a long way and will likely leave its policy unchanged. This July meeting could end speculation about any upcoming withdrawal. The reiteration of the BOJ’s loose policy may weigh on the Yen.”

How could it affect the USD/JPY?

With the USD/JPY leaning towards the downside in the run-up to the BoJ’s showing today, odds could be resting in favor of the bears as traders anticipate a possible disappointing reading from Japan’s central bank, and according to FXStreet’s Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik: “the pair has held below the 111.40 Fibonacci resistance for over a week already, and the short-term picture indicates that bears are still in control of the pair, as it is stuck around a flat 200 SMA and well below the 100 SMA, while the Momentum indicator turned south, now crossing its mid-line, while the RSI holds directionless around 44. Upcoming direction depends on how the market reacts to BOJ’s decision and Japanese data, with a break below 110.58, the low set last week, opening doors for a steeper decline below the 110.00 figure.”

 Support levels: 110.55 110.20 109.75

Resistance levels: 111.40 111.85 112.20

Key notes

5 Things You Should Know About Bank of Japan Meeting

USD/JPY: Two tweaks the BOJ could make tonight

USD/JPY analysis: will the BOJ dare to change its monetary policy?

USD/JPY Forecast: Central bank duel set to break the balance

About the Bank of Japan Press Conference

Kuroda, BoJ’s governor, will give a press conference in order to communicate with investors regarding monetary policy. He talks about the factors that affected the most recent interest rate decision, the overall economic outlook, inflation, and clues regarding future monetary policy.

About the Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement

An official monetary policy statement is released by the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan. By communicating the committee ´s vote outcome regarding interest rates and other policy measures as well as the economic conditions influencing their decision, the statement gives clue to future changes in monetary policy.

About the Bank of Japan Outlook Report

The Bank of Japan decides the text of the Outlook Report in April and October Monetary Policy Meetings and releases it semiannually, after it has presented its outlook for developments in economic activity and prices, has carefully assessed upside and downside risks, and has outlined its views on the future course of monetary policy.