New Zealand GDP overview
Late Tuesday at 22:45 GMT sees another round of New Zealand’s quarterly GDP figure, which markets have forecast to clock in at 0.8%, a healthy uptick from the previous quarter’s 0.5%. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern recently spoke out about the GDP number ahead of the release, stating that she was “very pleased” with the number, though the statement was quickly walked back by her administration, but the slip will likely see markets anticipating a bumper reading for the indicator, and if expectations are missed it could see a deflation in the Kiwi.
Analysts at ANZ have noted that, although the GDP data is looking back further on the calendar than most GDP readings, traders will still be leaning on the data as they try to sniff out any changes to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) stance: “As always, the GDP data is dated, relating to activity in the April, May and June while we are approaching the end of Q3. – Nonetheless, the data matters for the market because it determines the starting point for the Reserve Bank’s estimate of the ‘output gap’ (spare capacity in the economy) and thus the medium-term track for inflation. In its August Monetary Policy Statement, the RBNZ sounded less than confident about getting core inflation sustainably up to the target midpoint in an acceptable timeframe, so any GDP disappointment would likely be seized upon by a market that is already pricing roughly 40% odds of an OCR cut in the next 12 months.”
How could it affect the NZD/USD?
The Kiwi has been testing into bullish territory as it gets dragged up the charts by knock-on bullish sentiment from the Aussie in the Antipodean theater, and with the RBNZ already leaning closer towards a rate cut in the future, traders will be looking for any signs of slumping data. Missed expectations could see significant air let out of the Kiwi’s tires from here if GDP flubs the forecast, though bullish momentum should remain on pace if the printing comes out as good as the NZ PM may have let slip.
On the technical side for the Kiwi heading into the GDP reading: “The New Zealand Dollar appreciated 0.70% against the US Dollar on Tuesday. The currency pair breached the weekly pivot point near 0.6595 during the end of the previous trading session. Two scenarios are likely to occur in regards to this currency pair. Firstly, given that the exchange rate has breached the weekly R1, the next target for bullish traders will be the upper boundary of a junior ascending channel at 0.6640. Secondly, the NZD/USD currency exchange rate might reverse from the current price level and aim towards the 50-hour simple moving average at 0.6595 today.”
Key notes
NZD/USD: riding the coattails on the CNH and Aussie
NZDUSD Analysis: Trades above 0.65
NZDUSD Analysis: Bullish momentum
About the New Zealand GDP
The Gross Domestic Product released by the Statistics New Zealand is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by New Zealand. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of New Zealand economic activity and health. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish) for the NZD.
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