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New Zealand Unemployment Rate overview

The late Monday session will be seeing New Zealand’s latest jobs report at 22:45 GMT, but a still-soft broader economy for the Kiwi has NZD traders middling on their expectations, with 2018’s second quarter Unemployment Rate expected to remain on hold near 4.4%, while the Employment Change measure is expected to soften further to 0.4% against Q1’s 0.6% showing. As noted by FXStreet’s own Yohay Elam, “expectations for the second quarter can be described as “middle of the road.” The jobless rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.4%. The forecast for the change in employment is more modest: only 0.4% QoQ, but the Labor Cost Index is predicted to enjoy a faster pace of increases: 0.6% QoQ and 2.1% YoY.  The employment change figure tends to have the most significant impact. A substantial beat or miss will dominate the reaction in the NZD/USD and outweigh the other numbers. In case the figure comes out within expectations, the unemployment rate will likely have its say. This is due to the new mandate the of the RBNZ.”

Analysts at ANZ are also striking a measured outlook on the upcoming jobs report, stating that, “weak business sentiment is a reminder that the NZ economy is far from healthy, making it difficult to get too upbeat on the NZD’s outlook right here. That said, with the USD looking close to fully priced, it is not clear that the kiwi is going to head dramatically south either.”

How could it affect the NZD/USD?

The Kiwi has been bouncing around a rough channel for several weeks as markets grow tired of shorting the NZD, but on the flip side of that sentiment, have little reason to pick up more long positions. With expectations in the middle of the road for today’s jobs report, volatility can be expected but a directional bias may not be immediately forthcoming. Daily candles have the Kiwi trading into support from the 21-day moving average, implying a moderate buildup of bullish pressure, but a soured jobs report could easily see the NZD/USD pair make a break lower into recent swing lows between 0.6790 and 0.6725, the swing low points for late July. On the upside, a positive reading could be just what bullish NZD hopefuls were looking for, and the challenge will be to mount and capture the 0.6850 level, which would give the Kiwi a chance to run higher through July’s peaks.

Key notes

NZD/USD holding firm on 0.68 handle ahead of key labour market data

New Zealand jobs report preview: Favorable conditions for NZD/USD to move up

About the New Zealand Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate released by the Statistics New Zealand is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the New Zealand labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the New Zealand economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).

About the New Zealand Employment Change

The Employment Change released by the Statistics New Zealand is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in New Zealand. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZ dollar, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).