Search ForexCrunch

Statement on Monetary Polic overview:

We have yet another RBA related event for the week which is due today at  11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK or 00.30 GMT.  The quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy is on tap for Aussie traders following the RBA meeting and Governor Lowe’s speech on Wednesday where he announced that the bank’s Australian economic growth forecasts had been lowered to “around 3 per cent over 2019 and 2 ¾ per cent over 2020″, after “a bit below 3 per cent” in 2018 (GDP data due 6 March).  

Analysts at Westpac noted that there won’t be any real new information on the growth view but explained that the RBA has announced quarterly forecasts of an “expanded list of macroeconomic variables.”

“We will also be looking for confirmation of the new language around the balance of risks on the next move in the cash rate, plus commentary around the exchange rate, which on Tue was simply noted as having “remained within the narrow range of recent times.”

How might the event affect AUD/USD?

AUD/USD has been relatively subdued and with an ATR value that in the 60’s, a surprise from the event could trigger a big move one way or the other. However, should the event merely repeat much of what has been said over this week, a consolidation int the closing sessions would likely play out, especially with China still out. However, on a break below the pivot of 0.7100, bears will look to a test of the 24th Jan lows at 0.7075. Below there and the 0.7022/15 October low, eyes turn to the 161.8% extension of the retracement brings the price back into line with the start of the year lows and S3 located at 0.6914. On the upside, bulls need to get back above 0.7250.

Keynotes:

  • AUD/USD Analysis: near a bearish breakout level
  • AUD/USD: RBA statement in focus to confirm recent bearish bias

About the RBA Monetary Policy Statement:

The RBA Monetary Policy Statement released by the Reserve bank of Australia reviews economic and financial conditions determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. It is considered as a clear guide to the future RBA interest rate policy. Any changes in this report affect the AUD volatility. If the RBA statement shows a hawkish outlook, that is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a dovish outlook is seen as negative (or bearish).