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UK Q1 GDP Overview

The UK docket sees the first revision to the Q1 2018 GDP, which will be published later this session at 0830 GMT. The second estimate of the  United Kingdom  GDP growth is expected to arrive at 0.1% in the first quarter of 2018. The annualized reading is expected to confirm the first readout of 1.2% in Q1.

Deviation impact on GBP/USD

Readers can find FX Street’s proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 40 pips in deviations up to 2.5 to -2.5, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 70 pips.

How could affect  GBP/USD?

The spot could take a further beating on a downside surprise in the GDP figures and test the 1.3300 support zone. On a better GDP print, the  GBP/USD  pair could attempt a tepid bounce towards the 1.34 handle.

Technically, “Despite near-term oversold conditions, the pair’s inability to gain any strong traction beyond the 1.3400 handle clearly seems to suggest additional near-term downside. A follow-through retracement back below 1.3340 level would confirm the bearish bias and continue dragging the pair even below the 1.3300 handle towards testing its next support near the 1.3275 horizontal zone.  On the flip side, the 1.3400-1.3420 region might continue to act as an immediate strong hurdle and is followed by resistance marked by a trading range support break-point near mid-1.3400s,” Haresh Menghani, Analysts at FXStreet, writes.

Key Notes

GBP/USD continues to explore to the downside ahead of UK GDP figures

UK GDP amongst market movers today – Danske Bank

UK: Recent activity data point to Q1 GDP growth at 0.1% q/q – Barclays

About the UK GDP

The Gross Domestic Product released by the  Office for National Statistics  (ONS) is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the UK. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the UK economic activity. Generally speaking, a rising trend has a positive effect on the GBP, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).