Global markets are all keen to watch the first face-off between US President Donald Trump and his Democratic rival in the 2020 President Election, namely Joe Biden, at 01:00 GMT on Wednesday. The debate will be held in Ohio under the moderation of Chris Wallace from Fox news.
Despite tiring efforts of the Republican leader Trump, global forecasters have backed Biden’s political agenda of more stimulus and fewer confrontations. However, both the policymakers are arch-rival to China and hence nothing much will change for Beijing after the elections, up for November 03. Even so, the uncertainty surrounding the US politics, concerning President Trump’s ability to surprise markets, keep this event on the top-tier list.
The latest polls suggest the ex-Vice President Biden having a lead over Mr. Trump with more than 50% of people backing the Democratic candidate.
Ahead of the event, analysts at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group said,
Regardless of who wins the presidential election, it’s clear the US has turned a corner in its relations with China and will continue to maintain a hard line. A hawkish stance is a bipartisan view and it seems that a growing majority of Americans are seeing China in an unfavorable way. A recent Pew poll found that 73% of Americans have an unfavorable view of China. Although there is a partisan divide on some issues, most Americans are united on a couple of issues: promotion of human rights on China, and the current economic relationship between the two is bad.
To clarify the market moves, FXStreet’s Yohay Elam said,
If Biden is perceived as the winner, Republicans could conclude that they must do everything to impact the Supreme Court as they would lose their chance after the election. That would further lower the chances of further relief. In this scenario, markets would retreat, drag gold down with them, and the only winner would be the safe-haven dollar.
How could it affect the EUR/USD?
EUR/USD is currently taking bids near the highest in one-week, around 1.1747, as the markets in Tokyo open for Wednesday’s trading. The pair has recently gained bids as the US dollar drops amid increasing uncertainty over politics and stimulus. Also challenging the greenback could be trade-negative headlines from Europe and China. With the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) authorization to the European Union (EU) to slap $4 billion of trade tariffs on the US goods, coupled with China’s inability to perform on the Sino-American trade deal, US President Donald Trump will be under fire during the first round of face-off with Republicans. Hence, the Republican leadership is likely to drag the US dollar down and help EUR/USD to attack the monthly resistance line near 1.1800.
Technically, a confluence of 50-day SMA and a falling trend line from September 01, around 1.1800, restricts the short-term EUR/USD upside. On the contrary, 1.1680 and the multi-day low, marked on September 25, near 1.1610, can challenge the bears.
Key notes
US Election polls: Biden leading over Trump ahead first live debate
2020 US Elections Debate Preview: Eighty Percent of success is showing up
EUR/USD Forecast: Bulls keep pressuring despite fading optimism
About US Presidential Debate
The Commission on Presidential Debates has scheduled three debates between US President Donald Trump and Republican nominee Joe Biden. The first presidential debate of 2020 will be held on Wednesday, September 30, at the University in Cleveland, Ohio. The moderator is Chris Wallace from Fox news.
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