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  • Underpinned by looming supply risks from Iran sanctions, US dollar retreat.
  • Escalating US-China trade woes to keep the upside in check.

WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) caught a fresh bid-wave in the European session and regained the 69 handle, as the US dollar extended the retreat versus its main competitors in anticipation of the US tariffs announcement on the Chinese imports.

The black gold also remains underpinned by supply risks emerging from Iran, as the focus shifts to the US sanctions on Iran that take effect in November, mainly targeting the nation’s oil sector. Iran is the OPEC’s No.3 oil producer.

In the latest client note, Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch  (BAML) said, “”Iranian crude oil export loadings have declined by 580,000 barrels per day in the past three months.”

However, the recovery gains are likely to be limited, as markets remain unnerved ahead of the US tariffs announcement on $ 200 billion worth of Chinese imports, which could trigger a renewed risk-aversion wave across the financial markets.

WTI Technical Levels

Resistances: $ 69.50 (psychological level), $ 69.91 (Sept 14 high), $ 70 (key resistance).

Supports: $ 68.69 (10-DMA), $ 68.36 (Sept 13 low), $ 68.00 (round number).

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