WTI: break’s previous session’s double top highs, looking to close above 100-D SMA

• WTI has been on the march as the DXY drops back towards the day’s lows.
• The DXY is showing little signs of a convincing upside breakout and supports the bullish case for WTI.  

WTI has been on the march as the DXY drops back towards the day’s lows within the range of between 94.9580-95.4070, (currently sat at 95.03). WTI has been as low as $65.91 and has just made a fresh high of $67.74.

U.S. crude stockpiles rose unexpectedly and output climbed to a record, weighing initially on crude prices. However, the recovery has just taken out yesterday’s session highs as the greenback gives back most of its gains.  Analysts at UOB Group argued that ‘barring a clear break above 95.75, we expect USD Index to unwind its strong gains over the past few months’.

News from a reported conference call among members of the joint OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial monitoring committee is eagerly awaited as well – (The conference call was between Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Algeria, Venezuela and Oman and OPEC member Iran) – a statement is expected.

WTI volatility this week

WTI has been in a chop for this week so far with a more than a 4% drop at the start of the week as markets weigh up the implications for oil prices due to global production and an uncertain economic and political backdrop – (that production outage in Libya, for example, was a reminder of fragility in supply shocks). At the same time, the reports that  Trump’s administration had been considering releasing oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve also weighed as did the reports of the Saudis offers to increase output for Asian customers.  

WTI levels

Resistances are $69.42 (55-day sma) followed by $71.09 (21-day sma) and then $71.25 (high Jul.13). On the flipside, a break back below $67.08 (low Jul.18) opens $63.59 (low Jun.19) ahead of to $63.07 (200-day sma). However, technical lean bullish with RSI on the way to overbought territory on the hourly sticks with the price having penetrated the 100-D SMA and exceeding yesterday’s session double-top highs. The DXY is showing little signs of a convincing upside breakout and supports the bullish case for WTI.