WTI Bulls commit above a 50% reversion and confluence level

• Bloomberg reporting on trade deal progress  coupled with bullish OPEC sentiment supports oil prices.
• WTI holds above 200-day moving average but is capped by a 61.8% Fibonacci resistance.

Oil prices are extending their upside in the New York session, with West Texas Intermediate crude moving up 0.90% on the session having travelled from coupled with OPEC a low of $57.75 and scoring $58.53 on the upside.

Oil is higher on hopes that a trade deal between China and the US will feed into demand for the black gold while OPEC continues to cap production in 2020. China and the US are working towards a so-called “Phase-One” deal and the latest headlines point to likely conclusion to 16 months of tariff wars.

A Bloomberg article reported on a phone call that took place in recent trade between China’s Vice Premier Liu He, and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. The article explained that “the officials “reached consensus on properly resolving relevant issues” and agreed to stay in contact on the remaining points for a so-called phase one pact, China’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement. The US  Trade Representative’s office confirmed a meeting took place but declined to comment on the contents.” Such sentiment is bullish for risk sentiment and oil prices.  

Markets look ahead to OPEC meeting  

Meanwhile, news from Russian news agency TASS reported that OPEC and its major partners, including Russia, are mulling extending an oil production cut deal for three to six months after March 2020 ahead of the 177th meeting of the OPEC Conference in Vienna, Austria on 6th  Dec and the 7th December 2019  OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting. The energy market is looking for the OPEC group of producers to strengthen their compliance.  

This week, however, analysts at TD Securities argued that “the complex will have to contend with elevated prices without the aggressive CTA buying flow observed last week. With the algorithmic buying program in the rearview, we would not be surprised to see crude oil prices ease off recent highs in the coming week,” adding, “Indeed, large surpluses in early 2020 still linger on the horizon, especially as OPEC+ will likely hesitate to deepen output cuts when they meet in December, which suggests this latest rally will likely run out of steam.”

Ears to the ground for inventory and output data

Meanwhile, as we head into a holiday-shortened week in North America, expectations are that two reports on US inventories will show a decline in crude oil. The American Petroleum Institute will give its report on output at 4:30 p.m. Eastern time later today while the official government data is due Wednesday morning while US markets will be closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday.

WTI levels

Crucially, WTI is holding above the 200-day moving average and is capped by the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance of the Sep swing highs to October swing lows. A break here will open the trend line resistance which meets the 78.6% Fibonacci level around 60.70. A break below the 200-DMA and confluence of the 50% mean reversion level of the aforementioned range  opens risk to 55 the figure.