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  • WTI capped below 200 DMA on mixed fundamentals.  
  • WTI looks to close the U.S. session sub 59, having travelled between a low of $58.65 for the day and $59.55 as the high.

Oil prices have been creeping higher, with a higher low printed at $58.65bbls and a higher high at $59.55bbls since Friday’s trade. Bulls are en route to a test of the 200 DMA but fundamentals need to be weighed. “Supply risks and OPEC discipline point to stability,” according to analysts at TD Securities.

On the note of OPEC, the output-cut agreement expires at the end of June, but there is speculation that OPEC will decide to change the date of the next meeting to the first week of July from June 25-26. Wha we do know is that the Saudis have already said they wouldn’t increase production. Elsewhere, we see volatility on stock markets and the Sino/US trade standoff is not about to be resolved anytime soon, both of which will likely weigh on the price of crude.  

For the 2019 summer driving season, which runs from April through September, but the peak has really kicked in this week following the holidays, EIA forecasts that U.S. regular gasoline retail prices will average $2.92 per gallon (gal), up from an average of $2.85/gal last summer. The higher forecast gasoline prices primarily reflect EIA’s expectation of higher gasoline refining margins this summer, despite slightly lower crude oil prices. WTI will likely find support on a seasonal basis.  

Looking further ahead, if the U.S.-China do manage to pull a trade deal out of the bag, that would certainly lift global oil prices. If this occurs anytime, soon, on a seasonal basis, we have the hurricane season in July and August  which could potentially be disrupting gasoline supply from U.S. Gulf Coast refineries Also, not forgetting, the budget needs are forcing Saudi Arabia to push for oil prices of at least $70 per barrel this year, industry sources have said. It is also worth noting that the World Bank expects oil prices to average $67 a barrel this year and next, down $2 compared to projections from June last year.

Meanwhile, the next risk for oil this week will come from weekly data on U.S. petroleum supplies. These are delayed this week due to Monday’s holiday. The American Petroleum Institute will release its figures late Wednesday, while the Energy Information Administration’s report is due Thursday morning.

WTI levels

WTI technical analysis: Bulls target channel resistance at 62