WTI struggles to justify trade/political plays

• WTI stays under pressure as the global traders return to desks after an extended weekend.
• Upbeat US manufacturing data, geopolitical tension concerning Syria support price recovery.
• Doubts over the US-China trade deal disappoint buyers.

Despite US-Turkey tension and the increase in the US manufacturing gauge, WTI remains under pressure around $53.55 during early Tuesday.

The energy benchmark fails to benefit from the recent tension in Syria that led to the re-introduction of sanctions on Turkey by the United States (US). The US President recently said to stop $100 billion trade deal with the nation while the Trump Administration diplomats signals reaching NATO (the North Atlantic Treaty Organization) allies to take collective and individual diplomatic and economic measures. Adding to the price positive catalysts is the upbeat surprise release of the US New York (NY) Empire State Manufacturing Index.

Even so, the black gold stays on the back foot as uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade deal weighs on prices. While the US side seems too optimistic about trade deal with the dragon nation after first positive step, Chinese diplomats want further talks before signing a final deal.

Moving on, China’s inflation statistics and the return of the US/Canadian and Japanese traders from the extended weekend will offer fresh directives to WTI. It should, however, be noted that trade/political headlines will be the key driver.

Technical Analysis

While $55.05/10 and 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of $55.40 act as nearby resistances, multiple supports around $51.30 and $50.50 could limit near-term declines of the oil benchmark.