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  • Oil consolidates Friday’s surge to two-month highs.
  • The bulls are divided between broad USD strength and trade optimism.
  • Focus is shifting towards the Dec OPEC+ meeting amid impending trade talks.

WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) posts small gains near $ 58 mark in the European session this Monday, lacking a clear directional bias despite improved risk appetite on fresh US-China trade optimism.    

However, the sentiment around the black gold remains somewhat underpinned by the fresh hopes of a US-China trade deal following the recent upbeat comments from the US and China while Beijing’s gesture to raise the penalties on the Intellectual Properties (IP) theft also rekindled expectations of a trade truce.

The gains in the barrel of WTI remains capped mainly due to broad-based US dollar strength, driven by the rise in the US Treasury yields amid a risk-on market profile. The US dollar index bounces back to test the weekly tops of 98.30, modestly flat on the day. A stronger greenback makes the USD-denominated oil more expensive for the holders in foreign currencies.

Meanwhile, the bulls were also left unimpressed by the latest CME OPEC Watch Tool that showed that the OPEC+ is likely to leave the output cut policy unchanged when it meets in Vienna on Dec, 5. CME  OPEC  Watch Tool: Probability of  OPEC+ maintaining output cuts stands at 81.51%

Markets now await the US weekly crude supply reports and fresh developments on the US-China trade front to gauge the next direction in the commodity.

WTI Levels to watch