XLM Price Prediction: Stellar retreats toward bottom of consolidation channel

• XLM continues to fluctuate in four-week-old horizontal range.
• Additional losses are likely with a daily close below $0.36.
• Near-term technical outlook remains neutral with bearish bias.

Stellar started the week in a calm manner but came under modest pressure ahead of the weekend and touched its lowest level in a month at $0.3412. Nevertheless, XLM staged a technical correction and seems to have settled below $0.40.

Stellar remains indecisive

Despite the drop witnessed earlier in the week, Stellar continues to fluctuate in a four-week-old range and is having a difficult time making a decisive move in either direction. However, the price stays within a touching distance of the lower limit of this channel at $0.3600, which is reinforced by the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the Jan. 28 – Feb. 13 rally.

The 100-day SMA aligns as critical support at $0.3400 and a daily close below that level could trigger a technical selloff as it would be the first time since November and drag the price toward $0.3000 (psychological level).  

On the other hand, several strong hurdles are located a little above the price, suggesting that a bullish shift in the technical outlook could be hard to come by. Initial resistance is seen at $0.4000 (20-day SMA, Fibonacci 50% retracement), ahead of $0.4250 (50-day SMA) and $0.4400 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement).

Stellar one-day chart

Following this week’s price action, Stellar preserves its neutral outlook with a modest bearish bias. A daily close below $0.3600 could attract more sellers, while a break above $0.4400 is required for XLM to continue to push higher.