AUD/USD Forecast June 17-21

The Australian dollar  put together a winning streak for a change,  gaining about  140  points  against the US dollar last week. AUD/USD closed the week at 0.9563. This week’s major event is the RBA’s Monetary Policy Minutes.  Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

The Aussie posted big gains late in the week, as Australian employment numbers were much better than expected. The Aussie also got some help as the US dollar was broadly lower against the major currencies.

Updates:

• A mild hawkish change? 4 scenarios for the Fed decision  – FOMC preview
• The Aussie gaped lower at the wake of the new week, but quickly recovered. It is trading around 0.96. New motor vehicle sales remained flat after dropping last month.
• The RBA released the minutes from its last policy meeting. The RBA continues to leave the door open for further rate cuts, and said that the Aussie could continue to lose ground due to falling exports. Not surprisingly, the Australian dollar lost a cent on the news, and is struggling in the mid-94 range.
• CB Leading Index came in at 0.3%, while the MI Leading Index gained 0.6%. Both indexes improved from the previous reading.
• AUD/USD has crossed above the 0.95 level.
• AUD/USD loses 0.93 on a hawkish FOMC statement.
• The RBA released its quarterly bulletin.
• Chinese Flash Manufacturing PMI dropped for the third straight month, missing the estimate. It was also the second month in a row that the index has been below the 50-point level, which indicates contraction. Less demand in China is bad news for Australia, which is heavily dependent on trade with the Asian giant.
• AUD/USD has dropped to the l0w-92 range, it lowest level since  September 2010. The pair has now lost over three cents this week.

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:    

1. New Motor Vehicle Sales: Monday, 1:30. This is an important consumer indicator, as an increase in purchases of new cars or trucks is a sure sign of stronger consumer  confidence and spending. The indicator has not looked  good lately, with  no gains to report since  the  January release. The  May reading was the worst in 2013,  with a sharp 2013. The markets will be hoping for some improvement in  the upcoming release.
2. RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 1:30. The RBA held interest rates steady in June, with a rate of 2.75%. Analysts will be carefully combing through the minutes of the June policy meeting, looking for clues as to the central bank’s future monetary policy.
3. CB Leading Index:  Wednesday, 00:00. This important consumer index is based on 7 economic indicators. The May release posted a weak gain of just 0.1%, its lowest reading since February. Will the index put on a stronger performance in the upcoming release?
4. MI Leading Index: Wednesday, 00:30. This index is based on 9  economic indicators, but is considered a minor release since most of the data has already been released. The index dropped from 0.6% to 0.2% in the previous reading, and the markets will be hoping for a stronger June reading.
5. RBA Bulletin:  Thursday, 1:30. The RBA Bulletin is released each quarter, and provides the RBA’s analysis of current and future economic conditions in Australia. The report is a third-tier indicator, since most of the information contained in the report has already been released. Nevertheless, analysts will review the bulletin carefully, and a report that is considered more hawkish than expected is bullish for the Australian dollar.
6. Chinese Flash Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 1:45. This key indicator disappointed in the May release, dropping below the 50-point level for the first time this year, to 49.6 points. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. The markets are expecting another weak release, with an estimate of 49.4 points. Chinese key data should be treated as market-movers, as the Asian giant is Australia’s number one trading partner.

Live Chart of AUD/USD:[do action=”tradingviews” pair=”AUDUSD” interval=”60″/]

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD showed quite bit of volatility last week. The pair opened at 0.9421, and lost ground, as  AUD/USD touched a low of 0.9326. The pair  then roared back,  climbing to a  high of 0.9665, and  closed the week at 0.9563,  as support at 0.9549 (discussed last week) held firm.

Technical lines from top to bottom:      

We  begin with strong resistance at  1.0183. This line last saw action in  early  May.  The next line of resistance is at 1.0093. This is followed by the parity line, which AUD/USD  broke through  in mid-May, as it continues to push to lower levels.

The next resistance line is at 0.9913. This is followed by 0.9797, which continues to hold firm.  The next  resistance line is at 0.9634. This line was briefly breached as  the pair posted sharp gains late in the week. However, it remained intact at week’s end  as  the pair retracted and moved  below the 96 line.

AUD/USD is receiving  support at 0.9549. This line was providing resistance last week, but was breached as the pair shot higher late in  the week.  It is  a weak line, and could be tested early  next week.    Next is 0.9428, which is protecting the 94 level. This line has remained intact since October 2011.

0.9275 is the next support level. This strong line has not been tested since September 2010. This is followed by support at 0.9171.

Next, there is support at 0.9041, protecting the all-important 90 level. The final support line for now is at 0.8893. This line was last  breached in August 2010, as the Australian dollar put together a strong  rally which saw it  climb  above the 1.10 line.

I  continue to be  bearish on AUD/USD.

AUD/USD managed to push higher last week, but  still remains at low levels.    The Aussie took advantage of strong domestic employment numbers as well as a broadly weaker US dollar. However most Australian releases  have  been lukewarm or worse, and if the US Federal Reserve hints at tapering QE, we could see the pair lose ground in a hurry.

The Aussie sometimes moves in tandem with gold. You can trade binary options on gold using this technical analysis.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.