Browsing: Canadian Dollar Forecast

USD/CAD Technical Analysis, Canadian dollar forecast ► preview of the key events that move the Canadian dollar (C$) during the upcoming week. Here are some general data. Scroll down for the latest USD/CAD outlook

USD/CAD Characteristics

The Canadian dollar, aka “the loonie” (the loon appears on the 1 dollar coin) is a commodity currency. Oil is Canada’s primary exports and fluctuations in the “black gold” move CAD as well. The C$ also moves with also with stocks, as it is considered a “risk currency”. However, CAD  also depends heavily on demand from its No. 1 trading partner and southern neighbor, the USA. Trump’s trade wars hurt CAD. NAFTA renegotiations are not going anywhere fast.

Dollar/CAD tends to react relatively slowly to important economic data from Canada. Retail traders thus have a better level playing field that can jump into a trade even without the most sophisticated algorithmic tools. Even the Canadian jobs report tends to result in a relatively long move.

USD/C$ technical trading is OK: not choppy and tough, but neither fully respecting lines of support and resistance. Higher market volatility and trading volume make it more predictable.

Dollar/CAD Recent Moves

The Bank of Canada raised rates in two consecutive meetings, pushing the currency higher. However, this short cycle came to screeching halt alongside a slowdown in the economy and worries about inflation.

From the post-hike lows at the 1.20 handle, the pair began a correction phase and topped 1.29. However, the rise in oil prices due to some shortages and some profit taking stabilized the loonie. Another factor to watch is the housing situation in Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal, which is worrying.

Canadian rate hikes, US demand and the price of oil will continue guiding USD/CAD.

Latest weekly Canadian dollar forecast

Dollar/CAD advanced to higher ground as everything went against the loonie. A relatively light week regarding events leaves the focus on stocks, oil, and NAFTA. Here are the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

The stock market collapse hurt the Canadian dollar, a risk currency. Oil prices suffered from the sell-off in stocks and also from rising US production. To top it off, Canada lost no less than 88K jobs in January, although this came after two excellent months beforehand and wages increased nicely. All in all, the Canadian dollar had everything against it.


USD/CAD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Thursday, 13:30. The numbers provided by ADP for Canada’s private sector vary from the official statistics. In December, they showed a drop of 7.1K positions after a big gain beforehand. It will be interesting to see if ADP also reports a big loss of jobs or provides a more optimistic outcome.
  2. Lawrence Schembri talks: Thursday, 18:30. The BOC Deputy Governor speaks in Winnipeg and may trigger some action if he speaks about the next moves of his institution. He does not speak very often.
  3. Foreign Securities Purchases: Friday, 13:30. This indicator, often seen as a reflecting trust in the economy, has beat expectations in the past three months, hitting 19.56 billion in November. Another rise is on the cards for December.
  4. Manufacturing Sales: Friday, 13:30. Sales of manufactured goods increased by 3.4% in November, beating expectations. A slide could be seen this time.

* All times are GMT

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

Dollar/CAD initially moved lower, breaching the 1.2280 level mentioned last week. It then made a bit turnaround but stalled beneath 1.2435.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

1.2790 was the high in mid-November and serves as resistance. 1.2665 was a was a double-bottom in November and works as strong support.

It is followed by 1.26, a round number that worked as resistance in October. 1.2540 capped the pair in early October when it traded in a narrow range.

1.2435 was a cushion for the pair during the month of October. 1.2335 gave support to the pair in late September and it worked well in January 2018.

Even lower, 1.2250 cushioned the pair on its fall in February 2018. It is closely followed by 1.22

Strong support only awaits at 1.2070. The round number of 1.20 is next. And below there, only 1.18.

I am bullish on USD/CAD

The excellent US jobs report could continue supporting the greenback while the loonie could suffer from its own report. In addition, oil prices seem to have peaked. These factors could push USD/CAD higher in the short term. Once the worries about NAFTA subside, things could change.

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