Browsing: GBP USD Forecast

GBP/USD rocked and rolled on the government’s precarious position and on not-so-great data. What’s next? The upcoming week features few economic indicators, leaving more room for Brexit to have its say. Here are the key events and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

UK inflation came out below expectations at 2.4%. Retail sales also disappointed. Yet the instability of the British government that hardly survived votes in parliament weighed more than anything else. In the US, inflation rose as expected and Fed Chair Powell remained upbeat on the economy, boosting the US Dollar. However, late in the week, President Trump surprised by criticizing the Fed’s hikes and calling for a weaker US Dollar. That reversed the greenback’s gains.


GBP/USD daily graph with resistance and support lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. Ben Broadbent talks Monday, 17:00. The Deputy Governor of the Bank of England will speak in London and may respond to the latest data. Broadbent is a hawk, so if he veers away from the expectations for a rate hike, the pound could suffer.
  2. CBI Industrial Order Expectations: The Confederation of British Industry’s gauge surprised with a jump to 13 points last month. This time, a small slide is projected. The industry is only a small part of the British economy.
  3. High Street Lending: Wednesday, 8:30. This measure represents above 60% of UK mortgages and is released before the official data. After an increase to 39.2K last month, a small slide to 39K is on the cards.
  4. CBI Realized Sales: Wednesday, 10:00. The second figure from the CBI in the week is a hard piece of data. The gauge of realized sales leaped to 32 points last time and it is now expected to fall back to 16, which is still above levels seen beforehand.

* All times are GMT

GBP/USD Technical analysis

Pound/dollar dropped sharply, falling off the round number of 1.30 mentioned last week before recovering.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

1.3615 capped the pair in late 2017. 1.3470 was a swing high in early June.

The round number of 1.34 could provide further support. 1.3365 was a swing high in mid-July. Further down, 1.3315 was a swing high in late June.

1.3250 was a swing low in early June. Even lower, 1.3205 was the low point in late May. 1.3100 was a swing low in mid-June and 1.3050 is the latest 2018 low. The round number of 1.3000 awaits below. Even lower, 1.2955 is the low point seen in mid-July.

I am bearish on GBP/USD

The British government’s stability did not last for too long. In addition, there are doubts about the rate hike in August. Even if the dollar is pressured by Trump, the pound has bigger troubles.

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GBP/USD Forecast and technical analysis ► preview of the main events that move the British Pound (Sterling), and especially pound/dollar (cable) during the week. Here are some general data. Scroll down for the latest GBP/USD outlook

Pound/dollar characteristics

GBP/USD is a major pair and certainly one of the first to emerge in modern trade. Its nickname “cable” originates from transmitting the exchange rate over the telegraph cable between the UK and the USA in the 19th century.

Above average volatility characterizes pound/greenback trading. In comparison to other major pairs, stop-loss orders are usually placed at wider margins.

Another tidbit of Sterling trading is that the pair “front-runs” economic publications from Great Britain. We usually see a significant market movement ahead of a release. Leaks, rumors, or sheer nervousness move GBP USD

The pound is a moderate “risk” currency. When the global mood is positive, GBP often gains against the dollar, albeit usually not at the same magnitude as commodity currencies. When markets become risk-averse, Sterling is on the retreat.

Brexit talks and GBP/USD

The biggest market mover of GBP/USD is the surprising decision of voters in the United Kingdom to leave the European Union. This unprecedented move shook up  Her Majesty’s currency. Brexit has sent Pound/USD to levels last seen in 1985 and despite the recovery, Sterling still suffers.

The economy did well in 2016, before and after the EU Referendum, but it slowed down in 2017. On the other hand, the weak pound pushed inflation above the rises in wages. The Bank of England decided to raise rates in November 2017 but clarified it is a one-off. Mark Carney and his colleagues foresee only two hikes in the next three years.

Brexit negotiations were deadlocked for quite some time, but fresh hopes help the pound stabilize. PM Theresa May may agree to pay the high “divorce bill” that the EU demands.

Latest weekly GBP/USD forecast:

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