- German Preliminary CPI: All Day. German inflation came in at 0.4% in February, matching the forecast. The estimate for the initial March reading stands at 0.0%.
- Spanish Flash CPI: Monday, 8:00. Consumer inflation in the eurozone’s fourth-largest economy slowed to 0.8% in February, down from 1.1% a month earlier. The downtrend is expected to continue in March with a forecast of 0.6%.
- French Consumer Spending: Tuesday, 6:45. Consumer spending fell sharply in January, with a decline of 1.1%, compared to -0.3% in December. Another weak reading is expected, with an estimate of -0.7%.
- Eurozone Inflation: Tuesday, 9:00. The final reading for January CPI came in 1.2%, confirming the initial estimate. The initial estimate for March stands at 0.8%.
- German Retail Sales: Wednesday, 7:00. Retail sales rebounded in January with a gain of 0.9%, after falling 3.3% in December. A small gain of 0.2% is projected for February.
- Manufacturing PMIs: Wednesday: 7:15 for Spain, 7:45 for Italy, final French figure at 7:50, final German one at 7:55, and final euro-zone number at 8:00. In the initial readings, France fell to 42.9, Germany slipped to 45.7 and the all-eurozone PMI slowed to 42.9 points. However, all three PMIs beat their estimates. The final readings are expected to confirm the initial releases.
- Services PMIs: Friday, 7:15 for Spain, 7:45 for Italy, final French figure at 7:50, final German one at 7:55, and final euro-zone number at 8:00. The services PMIs plunged in March – Germany fell to 34.5, France slowed to 29.0, while the all-eurozone PMI slipped to 28.4 points. All three readings point to sharp contraction and were well below expectations. The final readings are expected to conform to the initial releases.
- Eurozone Retail Sales: Friday, 9:00. Retail sales rebounded in January with a gain of 0.6%, after a decline of 1.6% in December. Analysts are braced for a weak gain of 0.1% in the upcoming release.
EUR/USD Technical analysis
Technical lines from top to bottom:
With EUR/USD posting sharp gains last week, we start at higher levels:
1.1435 was tested in resistance in mid-March.
1.1290 is protecting the round number of 1.1300.
1.1215 is next.
1.1119 is an immediate support level.
1.1025 has some breathing room in support.
1.0825 is the final support level for now.
I remain bearish on EUR/USD
The dollar continues to be a magnet for investors during the current crisis. Although the dollar did have an off-week due to a dismal jobless claims report, the outlook for the dollar remains positive.