Browsing: EUR/USD Forecast

EUR/USD sagged last week, dropping 1.0%. The key events in the upcoming week are eurozone manufacturing and services PMIs and the ECB minutes. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
German ZEW Economic Sentiment plunged in August, dropping to -44.1. This was much lower than the estimate of -27.8. It was a similar story for the eurozone indicator, which slipped to -43.6, compared to a forecast of -21.7 points. German GDP disappointed, as the economy contracted by 0.1% in Q2. This was the first decline in three quarters. The eurozone economy slowed to 0.2% in Q2, down from 0.4% in Q1.

In the U.S., there was positive news from consumer inflation and spending numbers. CPI climbed 0.3% in July, matching the forecast. Core CPI remained steady at 0.3%, beating the forecast of 0.2%. Retail sales rose 0.7%, easily beating the estimate of 0.4%. Core retail sales sparkled with a gain of 1.0%, its best showing since March. On the manufacturing front, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index slowed to 16.8, but still beat the estimate of 10.1.

The U.S-China trade war saga continues. President Trump announced a delay on new U.S. tariffs against China, which were set to take effect on September 1. Still, tensions between the world’s two largest economies remains high, and the mass demonstrations in Hong Kong and the Chinese regime could lead to a further deterioration in U.S-China relations and could shake up the financial markets.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. Current Account: Monday, 8:00. The eurozone’s current account surplus climbed to EUR 29.7 billion in May, up from 20.9 a month earlier. The upward trend is expected to continue in June, with an estimate of 32.2 billion.
  2. Eurozone Inflation Data: Monday, 9:00. Final CPI improved to 1.3% in June, edging above the forecast of 1.2%. The estimate for the July release is 1.1%. Final Core CPI climbed to 1.1%, matching the estimate. The index is expected to slow to 0.9% in June.
  3. PMIs: Thursday, 7:15 for France, 7:30 for Germany, and final euro-zone number at 8:00. French Flash Services PMI came in at 52.5, pointing to weak expansion. The forecast for August is 52.5. The manufacturing PMI came in at 50.0 in July, which separates expansion and contraction. The August estimate stands at 49.5. German manufacturing continues to show contraction. The July reading slipped to 43.1, and no change is expected in the upcoming release. The services PMI continues to show strong expansion and came in at 55.4 in July. The August estimate is 54.1. Eurozone Flash manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.4 in July, and the August forecast stands at 46.3. The services indicator came in at 53.3 in July. The index is projected to drop to 53.0 in August.
  4. ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: Thursday, 11:30. The minutes will provide details of the policy meeting earlier in July. As expected, the ECB maintained interest rates. If policymakers are dovish about the economy, the euro could lose ground.
  5. Consumer Confidence: Thursday, 14:00. Eurozone consumer confidence has been steady, with readings of -7 in five of the past six months. Another reading of -7 is expected in the August release.

EUR/USD Technical analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

1.1515 was a high point at the end of January. 1.1435 was a low point at the beginning of February.

1.1390 was a stepping stone on the way up in late January and capped EUR/USD earlier.

1.1345 is next. 1.1290 has held in resistance since the first week of July.

Close by, 1.1270 was a double-bottom in December 2018.

1.1215 is the next resistance line.

1.1119 (mentioned last week) switched to a resistance role as EUR/USD lost ground

1.1025 was a cap back in May 2017.

1.0950 is next.

1.0829 has held in support since April 2017.

1.0690 is the final support level for now.

I remain bearish on EUR/USD

The eurozone economy continues to limp, and the German locomotive is also struggling. Weak global conditions and the U.S-China trade war have taken a heavy toll on the eurozone and German manufacturing sectors. Further global trade tensions could weigh on the euro.

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EUR/USD Forecast, Technical Analysis, Outlook ► preview of the major events that move Euro/Dollar during the week. Here are some general data. Scroll down for the latest EUR/USD forecast.

EUR/USD characteristics

Euro/dollar is the world’s most popular currency pair for both retail and institutional traders. 19 European countries that vary quite a bit from each other share the single currency. The key countries are Germany, France, Italy and Spain. The US dollar is the reserve currency of the world.

A wide trade surplus, originating mostly from German exports, means that funds are flowing into the euro area. When markets are calm, this influx pushes the common currency higher. However, the eurozone has its share of economic and political issues and speculation takes its toll.

The euro debt crisis engulfed Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, and Spain. While the worst may be behind us, it is always looming. The leadership of the European Central Bank and President Mario Draghi helped stabilize and even save the euro. His “whatever it takes” speech in July 2012″ was a turning point. The diverse countries are linked by a monetary union but not a fiscal one, and this remains the Achilles heel.

EUR//USD trading is often choppy, especially when it is confined to narrow ranges. When the pair is in trend, past technical lines, even those from 2003, are respected quite nicely. €/$ has a “good memory”.

EUR/USD recent moves

The euro-zone economies are growing at a robust pace in 2017. Unemployment is falling and even core inflation is finally rising albeit temporarily All this has led to optimism that sent the euro higher.

The ECB will halve bond-buys to 30 billion euros from January 2018. However, it left the door open to extending the QE program beyond September, and this hurt the euro. A weaker euro makes exports more attractive and pushes imported inflation higher. Draghi is happy with growth but worried about inflation.

The political uncertainty in Germany is becoming an issue after inconclusive elections in September. A fresh round of elections joins the crisis in Catalonia and the political instability in Italy.

In America, hopes for fiscal stimulus faded early in the year, but are now on the rise again, with Trump’s tax plan. The Federal Reserve has maintained its plan for three rates hikes in 2017 despite lower US inflation.

Latest weekly EUR/USD forecast

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