Browsing: AUD/USD Forecast

AUD/USD jumped 1.0% last week and reached a high of 0.7399, its highest level in three months. The upcoming week is busy, with eight events. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

In Australia, manufacturing and services PMIs remained well into expansionary territory, with readings of 56.1 and 54.9, respectively. Construction Work Done posted a 10th straight decline, as construction remains in a prolonged slump. Private Capital Expenditure continues to show declines and came in at -3.0% in the third quarter.

In the US, PMIs for October indicated stronger growth in the manufacturing and services sectors. Services PMI improved to 57.7, as the index accelerated for a seventh straight month. Manufacturing PMI climbed to 56.7, up significantly from 53.3 beforehand. Both PMIs were well into expansionary territory, which indicates that the economic recovery continues to gain traction. Unemployment claims climbed for a second straight week, with a reading of 778 thousand. This was much higher than the estimate of 732 thousand. Durable goods orders reports were mixed. The headline figure slowed to 1.3%, down from 1.9%. However, the core release climbed from 0.8% to 1.3%.

The week wrapped up with the FOMC minutes of the November policy meeting. The minutes showed that officials did not believe any changes were needed to the current bond-purchase scheme of $120 billion/month. At the same time, they were of the opinion that “circumstances could shift to warrant such adjustments.”                                                                                                                                                                    .

AUD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. MI Inflation Gauge: Monday, 00:00. The Melbourne Institute indicator is a useful gauge for tracking inflation on a monthly basis. Inflation declined by 0.1% in October, the first decline since May. Will we see an improvement in November?
  2. Chinese Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 1:00. The Manufacturing PMI was almost unchanged in November, with a reading of 51.4, which indicates a very slight expansion. The estimate for December stands at 51.6 points.
  3. AIG Manufacturing Index: Monday, 21:30. The Australian Industry Group climbed to 56.3 in October, up sharply from 46.7. A reading above the neutral 50-level indicates expansion. We now await the November release.
  4. Current Account: Tuesday, 00:30. Australia’s current account surplus surged to A$17.7 billion in Q2. Analysts are projecting a much smaller surplus in Q3, with a forecast of A$7.2 billion.
  5. RBA Decision: Tuesday, 3:30. The RBA is expected to maintain interest rates at the record level of 0.10%. Investors will be keeping a close eye on the rate statement, which could provide clues as to future monetary moves.
  6. GDP: Wednesday, 00:30. Australia’s economy fell by 7.0% in Q2, as Covid-19 was responsible for a sharp economic downturn. The economy is expected to rebound in Q3, with an estimate of 2.4%.
  7. AIG Construction Index: Wednesday, 21:30. The index climbed into expansionary territory in October, with a reading of 52.7, its highest level since May 2018. Will the upswing continue in November?
  8. Retail Sales: Friday, 00:30. Retail sales bounced back in September with a gain of 1.6%. This ended a nasty streak of four successive declines. The forecast for October stands at 0.5%.
  • All times are GMT


AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at the round number of 0.7700.

0.7595 is next.

0.7421 is an important monthly resistance line.

0.7332 is next.

0.7242 (mentioned last week) remains a weak support level.

0.7105 is next.

0.7008 is protecting the symbolic 0.7000 level. It is the final support level for now.


I am bullish on AUD/USD

The US dollar remains on the defensive, and the pro-cyclical commodity currencies have taken full advantage. The Aussie could continue its rally this week, unless the RBA sounds dovish and rains on the party.

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AUD/USD forecast and technical analysis ► preview of the major events that will move the Australian Dollar (A$) in the upcoming week.  Here are some general data. Scroll down for the latest AUD/USD outlook

Aussie/USD characteristics

The Aussie is a “risk-on” currency. It usually rises when commodities and stocks advance and when the risk appetite improves. Its fate deteriorates when the markets are in “risk aversion” mode: geopolitical worries increase and the outlook for global demand is sluggish.

The Aussie’s technical behavior is usually admirable. This implies respecting lines of resistance and support, diagonal trend lines, etc. AUD/USD has become more popular for techies in recent years, even after the financial crisis which brought the famous “carry trade.” to a halt.

Australia exports metals such as copper and iron. We often find a positive correlation between the price of iron ore and the Aussie $. The mining boom kept Australia out of recession for over 25 years. The land down under enjoyed the high resources demand with China playing a key role. While peak investment is probably behind us, the sector still churns out quite a lot of raw materials, as China has a soft landing.

AUD/USD Recent Moves

The Reserve Bank of Australia clarified it will not change interest rates anytime soon, but they tend to lean to cutting rates. This is due to low inflation. The labor market was looking good early in the year but now looks more complicated.

Risks could arise from the Chinese economy: Australia’s No. 1 trading partner could see a slowdown after the Party Congress in October 2017. So far, things look stable, but 2018 could be different.

Latest weekly AUD/USD forecast

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