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AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 7-11 – Aussie GDP rebounds in Q3

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AUD/USD rose for a fourth successive week and pushed above the 0.74 level. The upcoming week has five events. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

The RBA held the course at its policy meeting, as policymakers maintained interest rates at the ultra-low level of 0.10%. GDP showed a 3.3% gain in Q3, surpassing the consensus of 2.5%. Retail sales posted a solid gain of 1.4%, well above the estimate of 0.5%.

The US manufacturing sector continued to grow, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 57.9, although this was weaker than the previous release of 59.3 points. The ISM Services PMI fell to 55.9, down from 56.6 points. Still, this was a sixth straight month of expansion. In testimony on Capitol Hill, Federal Reserve Chair Powell reiterated his message for further fiscal stimulus support from the federal government. Nonfarm payrolls dropped to 245 thousand, down sharply from 638 thousand. This missed the estimate of 480 thousand. Wage growth surprised with a gain of 0.3%, above the estimate of 0.1%.                                                                                                                                                        .

AUD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. AIG Services Index: Sunday, 23:30. The index jumped to 51.4 in October, up sharply from 36.2 beforehand. It was the first reading in expansionary territory (above 50) since November 2018. Will we see another positive reading in November?
  2. ANZ Job Advertisements: Monday, 2:30.  The indicator continues to strengthen, improving to 9.4% in October. Will the upswing continue in the November release?
  3. NAB Business Confidence: Tuesday, 2:30. The National Australia Bank indicator rebounded in October with a reading of 5, ending a nasty streak of three consecutive declines. We now await the November data.
  4. Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Wednesday, 1:30. Consumer confidence slowed to 2.5% in November, down sharply from 11.9% beforehand. Investors are hopeful for another reading in positive territory.
  5. MI Inflation Expectations: Thursday, 2:00. The Melbourne Institute release is a useful gauge of actual inflation levels. The indicator edged up to 3.5% in October, up from 3.4% beforehand. Will the upswing continue in the November reading?
  • All times are GMT

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AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at the round number of 0.7700.

0.7595 is next.

0.7421 is an immediate resistance line.

0.7332 is next.

0.7242 (mentioned last week) has strengthened in support.

0.7105 is next.

0.7008 is protecting the symbolic 0.7000 level. It is the final support level for now.

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I am bullish on AUD/USD

The US dollar shows no sign of a rebound, although profit-taking remains a possibility. Investor sentiment to cyclical currencies like the Aussie remains positive.

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AUD/USD forecast and technical analysis ► preview of the major events that will move the Australian Dollar (A$) in the upcoming week.  Here are some general data. Scroll down for the latest AUD/USD outlook

Aussie/USD characteristics

The Aussie is a “risk-on” currency. It usually rises when commodities and stocks advance and when the risk appetite improves. Its fate deteriorates when the markets are in “risk aversion” mode: geopolitical worries increase and the outlook for global demand is sluggish.

The Aussie’s technical behavior is usually admirable. This implies respecting lines of resistance and support, diagonal trend lines, etc. AUD/USD has become more popular for techies in recent years, even after the financial crisis which brought the famous “carry trade.” to a halt.

Australia exports metals such as copper and iron. We often find a positive correlation between the price of iron ore and the Aussie $. The mining boom kept Australia out of recession for over 25 years. The land down under enjoyed the high resources demand with China playing a key role. While peak investment is probably behind us, the sector still churns out quite a lot of raw materials, as China has a soft landing.

AUD/USD Recent Moves

The Reserve Bank of Australia clarified it will not change interest rates anytime soon, but they tend to lean to cutting rates. This is due to low inflation. The labor market was looking good early in the year but now looks more complicated.

Risks could arise from the Chinese economy: Australia’s No. 1 trading partner could see a slowdown after the Party Congress in October 2017. So far, things look stable, but 2018 could be different.

Latest weekly AUD/USD forecast

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