Browsing: AUD/USD Forecast

AUD/USD forecast and technical analysis ► review of the major events that will move the Australian Dollar (Aussie) during the upcoming week.  Here is some general information. Scroll down for the latest AUD/USD outlook

Aussie/USD characteristics

The Australian dollar is a “risk” currency. It tends to do well when commodities and stocks rise and when the mood improves. It tends to fall when things get worse: geopolitical risks increase and the outlook for global demand slumps.

The A$’s technical behavior is usually very impressive. This implies respecting lines of support and resistance, trend lines, etc. AUD/USD has become more popular for techies in recent years, even after the financial crisis which saw the end of the famous “carry trade.”

Australia exports commodities, mostly of metals such as iron and copper. We often find a correlation between the price of iron ore and the A$. The commodity boom kept Australia out of recession for around 25 years. The land down under enjoyed the mining boom related to Chinese growth. While the mining boom has probably peaked regarding growth, the sector still churns out quite a lot, as China has a soft landing.

AUD/USD Recent Moves

Interest rates have been dropping in recent years, after an early post-crisis hike cycle. However, it seems that the new governor of the RBA, Philip Lowe, is not keen to take them lower.. Chinese data releases (such as the Caixin PMI) are having a growing influence once again, especially as they impact iron prices.

The days of AUD/USD parity are gone. Among the 6 factors impacting the Aussie the bears seem to have the upper hand.

Latest weekly AUD/USD forecast

AUD/USD reversed directions last week and posted slight losses. The pair closed at 0.7559. There are just three events this week. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

In the US, some policymakers reiterated the hawkish bend of the recent rate decision, although other members expressed concern about low inflation levels. Down under, the RBA sounded upbeat about the economy but said that it had no plans to alter interest rate policy.

Updates:

AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. RBA Assistant Governor Guy Debelle Speaks: Tuesday, 8:30. Debelle will speak at an event in Singapore. A speech that is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the Australian dollar.
  2. HIA New Home Sales: Thursday, 1:00. This indicator provides a snapshot of the level of activity in the housing sector. The indicator rebounded in April with a gain of 0.8%. Will we see another gain in the May report?
  3. Private Sector Credit: Friday, 1:30. Borrowing levels are carefully monitored, as higher borrowing usually translates into stronger spending. The indicator improved to 0.4%, matching the forecast. The estimate for the upcoming remains at 0.4%.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD opened the week at 0.7619 and touched a high of 0.7629. The pair then reversed directions and dropped to a low of 0.7535 late in the week, breaking resistance at 0.7513 (discussed last week). The pair closed the week at 0.7559.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We begin with resistance at 0.8075.

0.7938 is the next line of resistance.

0.7835 was the high point in April 2016.

0.7749 was a cap in March.

0.7605 is the next resistance line.

0.7513 has switched to resistance line following gains by AUD/USD last week.

0.7429 is the next support line. It switched from resistance when AUD/USD rallied in the first week of June.

0.7319 was the low point in May.

0.7223 has held since January. It is the final support line for now.

I am bullish on AUD/USD

The hawkishness of the Fed has been a bit of a surprise, but this sentiment is already priced in. A stronger global economy has boosted Australia’s export sector, which could boost the Australian dollar.

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Further reading:

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