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AUD/USD Forecast February 24-28 – Aussie Slides to 11-Year Low After Weak Job Numbers

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AUD/USD posted significant losses last week, falling 1.2 percent. It is a light schedule on the fundamental front, with just five events this week. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

The RBA minutes noted that policymakers had discussed trimming interest rates, but in the end, they maintained the current level of 0.75%. The bank also expects the coronavirus outbreak to “subtract from growth in exports over the first half of 2020″. Wage growth remained at 0.5% for a second straight month, matching the estimate. Employment numbers were mixed. The economy created 13.5 thousand, down from 28.9 thousand a month earlier. Still, this beat the estimate of 10.0 thousand. The unemployment rate jumped from 5.1% to 5.3%, which was above the forecast of 5.2%.

In the U.S., the Producers Price Index improved to 0.5%, up from 0.1% a month earlier. The Federal Reserve minutes indicated that Fed policymakers are cautiously confident that they can maintain current interest rate levels in 2020. At the same time, the minutes highlighted the significant risk posed by the coronavirus outbreak, stating that “the threat of the coronavirus, in addition to its human toll, had emerged as a new risk to the global growth outlook, which participants agreed warranted close watching.” Policymakers also noted that the outbreak has dampened investor sentiment. This warning from the Fed underscores the threat that coronavirus poses to the global economy.
AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
  1. Construction Work Done: Wednesday, 0:30. This construction indicator has reeled off five successive quarterly declines, which points to contraction in the construction industry. Another decline is projected for Q4, with a forecast of -1.0%.
  2. Private Capital Expenditure: Thursday, 0:30. Investment levels have been pointing downwards, with only one gain in the past six quarters. We now await the release for the fourth quarter.
  3. Private Sector Credit: Friday, 0:30. Borrowing levels remain weak, as consumers and businesses remain concerned over economic conditions. The December release improved to 0.2%, up from 0.1%. This matched the estimate. Another gain of 0.2% is forecast in January.
  4. Chinese Manufacturing PMI: Saturday, 1:00. The Aussie is sensitive to key Chinese releases, as China is Australia’s largest trading partner. The indicator has been close to the 50-level for the past three months, which points to stagnation in the manufacturing sector. We now await the February release.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

0.6960 has held in resistance since the first week in January, when AUD/USD went on a sharp slide.

0.6865 (mentioned last week) follows.

0.6744 has some breathing room following sharp losses by AUD/USD last week.

0.6627 was tested last week for the first time since March 2009. The pair is starting the week at this line. 0.6456 is next.

0.6380 is the final support line for now.

I remain bearish on AUD/USD

The coronavirus continues to disrupt the Chinese economy, and this is grim news for the Aussie, as China is Australia’s largest trade partner. With no signs that the virus will be contained anytime soon, the Aussie slide could continue into next week.

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AUD/USD forecast and technical analysis ► preview of the major events that will move the Australian Dollar (A$) in the upcoming week.  Here are some general data. Scroll down for the latest AUD/USD outlook

Aussie/USD characteristics

The Aussie is a “risk-on” currency. It usually rises when commodities and stocks advance and when the risk appetite improves. Its fate deteriorates when the markets are in “risk aversion” mode: geopolitical worries increase and the outlook for global demand is sluggish.

The Aussie’s technical behavior is usually admirable. This implies respecting lines of resistance and support, diagonal trend lines, etc. AUD/USD has become more popular for techies in recent years, even after the financial crisis which brought the famous “carry trade.” to a halt.

Australia exports metals such as copper and iron. We often find a positive correlation between the price of iron ore and the Aussie $. The mining boom kept Australia out of recession for over 25 years. The land down under enjoyed the high resources demand with China playing a key role. While peak investment is probably behind us, the sector still churns out quite a lot of raw materials, as China has a soft landing.

AUD/USD Recent Moves

The Reserve Bank of Australia clarified it will not change interest rates anytime soon, but they tend to lean to cutting rates. This is due to low inflation. The labor market was looking good early in the year but now looks more complicated.

Risks could arise from the Chinese economy: Australia’s No. 1 trading partner could see a slowdown after the Party Congress in October 2017. So far, things look stable, but 2018 could be different.

Latest weekly AUD/USD forecast

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