AUD/USD Forecast | Forex Crunch

Browsing: AUD/USD Forecast

By Kenny Fisher on Dec 16, 2018

The Australian dollar sagged late in the week, as it fell to an 8-week low on Friday. Australia releases key employment indicators. In the U.S, the Fed is expected to raise rates, and we’ll get a look at U.S Final GDP for the third quarter. Here are the highlights of the week and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

In the U.S., consumer spending and inflation dropped in November, but still was within expectations. This helped boost the U.S. dollar last week. The global trade war continues to weigh on risk appetite, and the arrest of Huawei’s CFO Meng could complicate U.S-China trade talks.

AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 00:30. The minutes will provide details of the RBA meeting earlier in December. At the meeting, the RBA said that low-interest rates continue to support the Australian economy, and the minutes will likely reiterate that the bank will continue current monetary policy.
MI Leading Index: Tuesday, 23:30. The index continues to show little movement and the November release posted a weak gain of 0.1%.
Employment Change: Thursday, 00:30. This indicator is the highlight of the week. The economy added 32.8 thousand in October, crushing the estimate of 19.9 thousand. The November forecast stands at 20.0 thousand.
Unemployment Rate: Thursday, 00:30. Unemployment has remained pegged at 5.0% for two straight months. No change is expected in the November reading.

*All times are GMT

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD posted gains for most of the week but reversed directions on Friday and dropped sharply, as the pair ended the week with small losses.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 0.7480, which capped the pair in mid-July and defends the symbolic 0.75 level. 0.74 was the high point reached the pair reached at the wake of December. Next is 0.7340, which the pair breached in late November.

0.7315 was a swing high seen in late September and it remains relevant. Further down, 0.7240 separated ranges in September and in October. 0.7190 marked a low point in the first week of December.

Lower, 0.7165 was a swing low after a recovery in mid-November. 0.7085 was a low point in September.

The round number of 0.70 is closely watched by many market participants. Close by, 0.6970 played a role back in January 2017. Below, 0.6825 that supported the pair in late 2016 and early 2017.

I am bearish on AUD/USD

The global trade war has taken a bite out of the Australian export sector and the U.S has promised more tariffs against China in March, unless the parties can reach some accommodation. This bleak picture could mean more headwinds for the Australian dollar.

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Aussie/USD characteristics

The Aussie is a “risk-on” currency. It usually rises when commodities and stocks advance and when the risk appetite improves. Its fate deteriorates when the markets are in “risk aversion” mode: geopolitical worries increase and the outlook for global demand is sluggish.

The Aussie’s technical behavior is usually admirable. This implies respecting lines of resistance and support, diagonal trend lines, etc. AUD/USD has become more popular for techies in recent years, even after the financial crisis which brought the famous “carry trade.” to a halt.

Australia exports metals such as copper and iron. We often find a positive correlation between the price of iron ore and the Aussie $. The mining boom kept Australia out of recession for over 25 years. The land down under enjoyed the high resources demand with China playing a key role. While peak investment is probably behind us, the sector still churns out quite a lot of raw materials, as China has a soft landing.

AUD/USD Recent Moves

The Reserve Bank of Australia clarified it will not change interest rates anytime soon, but they tend to lean to cutting rates. This is due to low inflation. The labor market was looking good early in the year but now looks more complicated.

Risks could arise from the Chinese economy: Australia’s No. 1 trading partner could see a slowdown after the Party Congress in October 2017. So far, things look stable, but 2018 could be different.