John Taylor, the CEO of FX Concepts stated in an interview that he took a short position on AUD/USD with very ambitious goals.
Taylor sees the Aussie fall to 0.90 in a conservative scenario, and as low as AUD/USD 0.60 in a braver scenario. The bet is only against the Australian dollar and not against its peer commodity currencies.
The Australian dollar has recently lost the 1.0150 – 1.06 range, and it quickly fell below parity. A rate cut by the RBA, worries about global growth and the recent budget release by the government (which foresees future deficits) all weigh on the Australian dollar.
However, at 0.9865 at the time of writing, isn’t a target of 0.60 a bit too harsh?
Australia still enjoys a relatively low unemployment rate, low government debt, a perfect triple AAA credit rating (AAA from all the three major rating agencies) and sound prospects, even if the mining investment boom could peak.
Taylor did note that the “kiwi is beating up on the Aussie”. Why? because New Zealand’s main commodity is food, and not metals that depend on economic cycles.
What do you think? Is the Australian dollar set to lose much more ground? Or is the fall from the highs over and we will see some stabilization at these levels?
For more, see the AUD/USD forecast.
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