Australian Retail Sales is considered the primary gauge of consumer spending. The indicator provides analysts and traders with an early look at consumer spending. A reading that is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the Australian dollar.
Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for AUD/USD.
Published on Thursday at 00:30 GMT.
Indicator Background
Consumer spending is one of the most important components of the economy, and strong numbers in this sector signify growth and a stronger economy.
The November reading of 0.1% was a disappointment, falling short of the estimate of 0.3%. The forecast for the December report stands at 0.3%.
Sentiments and levels
The US dollar continues to show broad strength and the Australian dollar has been no match for its US cousin. Market sentiment remains strong on the US economy, and if Australian numbers do not impress this week, the Aussie could continue to lose ground. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on AUD/USD towards this release.
Technical levels, from top to bottom: 0.7978, 0.7904, 0.7799, 0.7601, 0.7403 and 0.7283.
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: 0.0% to 0.6%: In such a case, the Aussie is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
- Above expectations: 0.7% to 1.1%: An unexpected higher reading can send AUD/USD well above one resistance line.
- Well above expectations: Above 1.1%: Such an outcome would propel the pair upwards, and a second resistance line might be broken as a result.
- Below expectations: -0.4% to -0.1%: A negative reading could push AUD/USD below one level of support.
- Well below expectations: Below -0.4%: In this scenario, the Aussie could break a second support level.
For more about the Aussie, see the AUD to USD forecast.
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