New Zealand Dollar – Strong Kiwi Justified but Backfires
The kiwi suffered from a verbal intervention by officials in New Zealand that expressed worries about the strength of the currency.
However, the New Zealand dollar does have some reasons to remain strong, and it’s not only the US QE program.
* This article is part of the April 2013 monthly forex report. You can download the full report by joining the newsletter in the form below.
Positive:
- New Zealand’s trade balance exceeded is not that stable, but was more positive than negative recently.
- Manufacturing: the Business NZ Manufacturing Index stands on 56.3 points – very nicely in growth territory.
- Building consents: the recent publication showed a rise of 1.9%, showing ongoing interest in kiwi housing.
Negative:
- Employment: New Zealand published employment data only once per quarter. The last figures were for Q4 2012 and they were relatively weak: while the unemployment rate dropped from 7.3% to 6.9%, the level of employment dropped by 1%, much worse than a gain of 0.4% that was predicted.
- Central bank: The RBNZ did acknowledge the strength of the economy, but expressed clear worries about the strength of the kiwi. It did actually managed to depress the NZD and this could happen again in April.
Main events for the kiwi in April:
- April 2nd 00:00 ANZ Commodity Prices
- 8th 23:00 NZIER Business Confidence
- 10th 22:30 Business NZ Manufacturing Index
- 11th 22:45 FPI
- 16th 22:45 Quarterly CPI
- 23rd 21:00 Rate decision
- 25th 22:45 Trade balance
- 29th 1:00 ANZ Business Confidence
- 29th 22:45 Building Consents
- May 1st 1:00 ANZ Commodity prices
All in all, NZD/USD is likely to remain in the current range: incoming flows support the kiwi (also thanks to the non-zero interest rate), while the central bank’s comments could keep it down. The rates are expected to remain on hold once again at 2.5%, and the statement is the focus.
NZD/USD Technical Outlook
NZD/USD finally broke above the 0.8470 line in February and reached above 0.85. But, this rally didn’t last, and the shooting start pattern ended with a big downfall: NZD/USD bottomed out only at around 0.8150, and made another rebound to above 0.8360.
Lines
The round number of 0.90 is in uncharted territory. The float-era high of 0.8842 is the ultimate resistance line.
0.8470 was the peak in 2012 and remains key resistance. The pair temporarily breached this line, but didn’t go too far. 0.8360 was a very impressive cap to the pair during September 2012 and is a key line on the upside.
0.8175 worked well as support during September 2012 and is only minor now. 0.81 is the bottom of the current range, after working as such several times in recent months and also at the beginning of the year.
0.7975, which was a veteran peak back in 2010 returns to play a significant role as the pair stabilizes above the line. A loss would open the door for bigger falls. The round number of 0.78 worked as support in early 2011 and also in mid-2012 and is the next line.
0.7650 capped the pair on recovery attempts and also worked as resistance in 2009. 0.7450 was a stubborn bottom in May 2012 and was also a swing low in the fall of 2011.
0.7350 is significant on the downside. The pair got close to this line during Q4. The round number of 0.71 was a swing low in 2011 and a break lower would be a bearish signal. Under the round number of 0.70, the next line of support is 0.6815, which worked as such in early 2010.
