Category: Forex News

Choppy trading ahead

Despite being so close to Christmas, this week has been a busy one on the economic calendar, dominated by events in the UK. We started the week with CPI Inflation data which came in lower than expected at 1.0%, compared to a consensus of 1.2% and a previous figure of 1.3%. This number is actually the lowest in 10 years, largely fuelled by the drop in the price of oil. Tuesday also saw the publication of the Bank of England’s (BoE) stress test results on the major British banks. These showed that the Co-Operative Bank did not have the strength to survive another deep crisis, with Lloyds and RBS also remaining at risk.

Despite that doom and gloom, things took a turn back in a positive direction on Wednesday for the British unit, as an array of data showed a far rosier picture. Unemployment is down again, ahead of every other country in Europe and not far behind the US. More importantly, wage growth jumped to 1.4%, and combined with falling inflation, this means that workers are getting richer in real terms for the first time since 2008.

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Yellen run down, oil running down, Russian run and the currency down under

Yellen run down, oil running down, Russian run and the currency down under

It’s hard to believe the holidays are here with so much action in the markets. We try to make sense of it all by understanding the different elements of the important Fed decision, the impact of oil prices various countries, a focus on Russia’s ruble, the resulting emergency SNB decision and the fate of the currency

Patient Fed No Match For Strong Dollar ; SNB Goes Negative

The US dollar is on the rise one day after the Federal Reserve struck a more cautious tone with respect to 2015 interest rate increases. At the final policy meeting of the year, Chairman Janet Yellen and her colleagues took a delicate step toward raising rates, confirming the central bank was on course, though not

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index slides to 24.5 points

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index slides to 24.5 points

The Philly Fed number dropped from the very high levels and hit 24.5 points, slightly below expectations but still a positive score. This is the number for December. The Philly Fed manufacturing index was expected to slide from the sky high level of 40.8 to 26.3 points this time. Among the components, we have a

EURUSD has more room to fall; USDJPY could extend gains soon – Elliott Wave Analysis

EURUSD has more room to fall; USDJPY could extend gains soon – Elliott Wave Analysis

On EURUSD we have seen a strong sell-off yesterday after the FED said that rates are rising in 2015. So, traders are positioned for long USD on speculation for higher rates which is obviously good for the buck. On the intraday chart of EURUSD we see a bearish impulse in progress with room for more weakness

UK retail sales leap 1.6% – GBP/USD follows

UK retail sales leap 1.6% – GBP/USD follows

Quite a beat in UK retail sales: a rise of 1.6% m/m or 6.4% y/y. for the month of November. This comes on top of upward revisions for October. Core retail sales rose 1.7% m/m and 6.9% y/y. These numbers are much better than expected. Christmas shopping has certainly begun in the UK. GBP/USD was already moving

German IFO Business Climate rises to 105.5 as expected – sell opportunity on EUR/USD?

German IFO Business Climate rises to 105.5 as expected – sell opportunity on EUR/USD?

No surprises from Germany’s highly regarded IFO business climate: it advanced for a second month in a row to 105.5 points, within expectations. Current conditions stand at 110.1 points, also as expected. EUR/USD is ticking marginally higher. The German IFO Business Climate was expected to move up, showing more confidence in Germany in the month of

EUR/USD gets Swiss sugar rush – tests lows and bounces

EUR/USD gets Swiss sugar rush – tests lows and bounces

The Swiss National Bank made a move: they set a negative deposit rate of 0.25%, even lower than the the ECB’s -0.20% deposit rate. It also changed the Libor Rate to a range of -0.75% to +0.25%. This was an emergency meeting by the SNB. The move also has implications on EUR/USD. While the timing of the

Yellen has a couple of bullish comments – USD rebounds

Yellen has a couple of bullish comments – USD rebounds

Yellen explains it is not a change in policy and sounds relatively bullish, even though the decision is data dependent. This is happening after the Fed released a balanced statement that eventually hurt the dollar. We are seeing the dollar rebound very nicely during the press conference as Yellen sounds bullish about the economy and says rates are

AUD/USD setting new 4 year lows on Yellen hawkishness

AUD/USD setting new 4 year lows on Yellen hawkishness

The Australian dollar entered the Fed decision as maybe the most vulnerable currency. The central bank in the land down under wants AUD/USD to see 0.75, China is slowing down and so are prices of Australia’s export commodities. It seemed alright at first: The Fed statement was quite balanced on all accounts, and this allowed