EUR/USD April 30 – Steady as Eurozone Unemployment Hits

EUR/USD  is steady in Tuesday trading, as the pair trades  in the  high-1.30 range in the European session.  The Eurozone unemployment rate hit another record, stoking further speculation that the ECB may take action and lower interest rates later this week.  German data was a mixed bag, as Unemployment Change was higher than expected, while Consumer Climate beat the forecast. In the US, today’s major event is CB Consumer Climate. The markets are anticipating a turnaround in the indicator after last month’s weak release.

Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.

EUR/USD Technical

• Asian session: Euro/dollar was steady, touching a high of 1.3080 and consolidating at 1.3078. The pair  broke above the 1.31 line but retracted back into 1.30 territory.
• Current range: 1.3050 to 1.3100.

Further levels in both directions:      

Below: 1.3050, 1.3000, 1.2960, 1.2880, 1.2805, 1.2750 and 1.27.

• Above: 1.31, 1.3140, 1.3170, 1.3255, 1.3290, 1.3350 and 1.34.
• 1.3050 continues to  provide support, but is vulnerable.
• On the upside, the pair is testing 1.31. 1.3170 is a key level.

Euro steady in cautious trading – click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

• 7:00: German Retail Sales. Exp. -0.2%. Actual -0.3%.
• 7:00 GfK German Consumer Climate. Exp. 5.9 points. Actual 6.2 points.
• 7:45 French Consumer Spending. Exp. 0.2%. Actual 1.3%.
• 8:00 Spanish Flash GDP. Exp. -0.5%. Actual -0.5%.
• 8:55 German Unemployment Change. Exp. 2K. Actual 4K.
• 9:00 Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate. Exp. 11.7%. Actual 11.5%.
• 10:00 Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate. Exp. 1.6%. Actual 1.2%.
• 10:00  Eurozone Unemployment Rate. Exp. 12.0%. Actual 12.1%.
• 10:00  Italian Preliminary CPI. Exp. 0.3%. Actual 0.1%.
• 13:30 US Employment Cost Index. Exp. 0.5%.
• 14:00 US S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI. Exp. 9.1%.
• 14:45 US Chicago PMI. Exp.52.5 points.
• 15:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Exp. 61.4 points.

For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment

• Italy  forms government: After months of paralysis, Italy has finally formed a government. The deadlock, which had paralyzed the Eurozone’s third largest economy and had kept the markets on edge, was finally broken as Enrico Letta was nominated as prime minister last week. Letta’s Democratic Party does not have a parliamentary majority, so the coalition he has cobbled together may not last for long. Letta, is considered a moderate and is liked within the Eurozone. The new government will be faced with an economy mired in recession and a sour electorate that is fed up with austerity measures. The markets were pleased by the news, and Italian 10-year bonds were down, dropping below 4%.
• US GDP Disappoints: With a long string of weak releases for the past month, perhaps it shouldn’t have been a surprise that US GDP for Q1 fell below expectations on Friday. The indicator improved sharply, climbing from -0.1% to 2.5%. However, the reading was a disappointment, as the markets had anticipated a gain of 3.1%. The weaker than expected reading from one of the most important economic indicators should serve as a wake up call that the US economy is hitting turbulence, which could affect the US dollar.
• German Data Mixed: German data looked sluggish last week, and Tuesday’s numbers were mixed. Retail Sales declined 0.3%, below the estimate of 0.2%. Unemployment Change came in at 4 thousand new claims, worse than the estimate of two thousand. On the bright side, Consumer Climate rose to 6.2 points, beating the  estimate of 5.9 points. In order for the Eurozone to stage a recovery, Germany will have to lead the way with improved numbers.
• Will ECB press the trigger and cut rates?  The Eurozone seems to be lurching from one crisis to another, as we have seen with the Cyprus bailout mess and the political impasse in Italy. Add to the mix weak economic activity from major economies in the Eurozone, and we could have a recipe for an interest rate cut by the ECB. Speculation that the ECB will take action is growing,  as Euro-zone headline CPI fell from 1.7% to 1.2%, significantly below the 1.6% estimation and  well off  the 2% inflation target. The ECB does not meet until Thursday, but the growing possibility of an interest rate cut promises to be a hot topic throughout the week.