Euro dollar starts the week in the same range. The news about the death of North Korean leader Kim Jung Il sent the pair lower for a short while, but the focus quickly returns to Europe. The refusal of the ECB to buy bonds sends Italian yields higher once again. Will the debt issues continue into the holiday season?
Here’s an update on technicals, fundamentals and what’s going on in the markets.
EUR/USD Technicals
- Asian session: The pair dipped below 1.30 for a short time, and returned to range afterwards.
- Current range: 1.30 to 1.3060.
- Further levels in both directions: Below 1.30, 1.2945, 1.2920, 1.2873 , 1.2720 and 1.2580.
- Above: 1.3060, 1.3145, 1.3212, 1.3280, 1.3380, 1.3420, 1.3480 and 1.3550.
- 1.2945 is the trough reached after 1.30 was lost, but the really important support is the YTD low of 1.2873.
- 1.3145 remains critical resistance now, if 1.3060 is reconquered.
Euro/Dollar in range above 1.30- click on the graph to enlarge.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 9:00 Euro-zone Current Account. Exp. -2.1 billion. Actual -7.5 billion.
- 15:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index. Exp. 21 points.
- 15:30 ECB president Mario Draghi testifies.
* All times are GMT.
For more events later in the week, see the Euro to dollar forecast
EUR/USD Sentiment
- Kim Jung Il dies: The leader of North Korea officially died on Saturday. Rumors were going on for more than a year. His son, Kim Jung Un was announced the heir. There are worries that the new leader will find himself in a power struggle with the military, and that this could result in fresh tensions with South Korea and Japan. The news strengthened the US dollar for a short time.
- Draghi rejects big bond buys again: The president of the ECB reiterated the refusal of the ECB to step up bond buying. This follows the line from the recent press conference. In a previous appearance in the European parliament, Draghi hinted that the ECB might be willing to act under certain conditions. Will he provide new hints? Or stick to the tough line? In any case, bond buying or no bond buying seems a lose-lose situation for the euro.
- France downgraded awaited Standard and Poor’s warned all euro-zone countries, apart from Greece, that their rating is endangered. France, Italy, Spain and others received a two-notch warning. The rating agency promised an answer within days and official talk from Paris begins preparing the public for a downgrade, saying “it’s not the end of the world” and similar comments. If France loses the AAA rating, so does the EFSF bailout fund. Moody’s and Fitch also added their warnings.
- Greek talks stucks: Greece’s bondholders are struggling to reach an agreement about the “voluntary” debt restructuring. The parties aren’t getting close. And, the pace of withdrawals from Greek banks intensified recently, as the chances of leaving the euro-zone rose. This Greek bank run could bring down the system.
- Spain distances itself from Italy: Spain had two successful bond auctions this week, while Italy had a poor one. This is seen in the yields. Spain’s second auction helped the euro stabilize before the new government comes to power this week. Italian yields are rising to 6.90% while Spanish 10 year yields are down to 5.20%.
- Positive outcome of big bulk of US data: Jobless claims fell to 366K, the lowest in 3.5 years. Also the Philly and New York Fed indices exceeded expectations, including growth in the employment components. On the other hand, industrial output fell. All in all, the US continues to shows good signs of growth, including in jobs.