Euro dollar is trading in a narrowing range as tension mounts towards the FOMC meeting. The Fed is expected to “do something” or more than one thing to help the economy. In Europe, there is more hope for Greece, as talks with the troika are moving forward. The market’s direction will be clearer soon.
Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and what’s going on in the markets.
EUR/USD Technicals
- Asian session: Quiet session saw the pair around 1.47.
- Current range: 1.3630 to 1.3750.
- Further levels in both directions: Below 1.3630, 1.3580, 1.3510, 1.3440, 1.3350, 1.3250.
- Above: 1.3750 1.3838, 1.3788, 1.3838, 1.3950, 1.4030, 1.41, 1.4160, 1.4220 and 1.4282
- Very important support is still far, at 1.3440. There are many small steps before this point.
- The peak of 1.3750 is important resistance before 1.3838.
Euro/Dollar higher in range – click on the graph to enlarge.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 14:00 US Existing Home Sales. Exp. 4.76 million. See how to trade this event with USD/JPY.
- 18:15 FOMC Statement. Here are 7 scenarios for this big event.
* All times are GMT.
For more events later in the week, see the Euro to dollar forecast
EUR/USD Sentiment
- Bernanke awaited: The focus now shifts from Europe to the highly anticipated rate statement in the US. While QE3 has low chances, Bernanke and his colleagues might introduce a wide variety of monetary stimulus and this might weaken the dollar. See the FOMC Preview for 7 scenarios for this event. In case Bernanke disappoints and doesn’t provide big steps, the dollar will strengthen and the euro will be very vulnerable.
- Troika and Greece get closer: The EU / ECB / IMF troika laid out fresh demands from Greece, in order to release the next tranche of aid €8 billion. . Among these demands, is acut of 100K jobs in Greece. Two conference calls paved the way for a return of the delegation to Greece.
- EFSF Delays: The government in Slovenia fell and this means a delay to the approval of enhanced powers for the European bailout fund. The government in Slovakia wants to be the last to act. Everything is pushed back.
- French banks in trouble: Fresh reports show more pressure on French banks. German conglomerate Siemens withdrew €500 from Societe Generale. In addition, Bank of China halts FX swaps with European banks, with Greece exposed French banks in the limelight.
- Dollar Liquidity Move Boosts the Euro: The dramatic announcement by 5 central banks to provide longer dollar liquidity for European banks provided a big relief for the euro, while the euphoria is fading out. Could this be a preparation for the Big Greek Default?
- More bearish Euro forecasts: Barclays Capital joined PIMCO and Deutsche Bank with bearish forecasts for EUR/USD, with a forecast of 1.33 within a month and 1.25 within three months.
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