How will EUR/USD Perform in 2010? These 6 Insightful Forecasts Offer Answers
Posted on January 2, 2010 by Yohay
Filed Under Forex Opinions | 9 Comments
As 2010 begins, I’ve searched the web for forecasts on the forex market’s most popular pair: EUR/USD. I found 5 insightful forecasts for this pair. Most of them see a stronger dollar in 2010. Here’s the list + a few notes about them. I’d be glad to here more thoughts!
If you have a site / blog with a 2010 forecast for EUR/USD, please link to here so I’l notice it. I’ll be happy to read it and link back, enlarging this initial list of 5 predictions. Let’s start:
- Marc Faber: 5-10% rise of dollar against the Euro in 2010. Marc Faber, publisher of a newsletter called “Gloom, Boom and Doom”, is a highly regarded analyst, but he isn’t always correct. In an article in Bloomberg, he says that the bearish betting on the dollar has become too crowded, and that the dollar and the stock markets will continue rallying together, as they did in December 2010 (different than the previous months).
- John J. Drummond: Believes that the dollar will reverse its losses and triumph over the Euro. This forex expert gives a few reasons: the financial crisis will still be felt in Europe, Ben Bernanke will raise the rates and more.
- Mitul Kotecha: Sees EUR/USD falling through most of 2010. In this article in FXStreet, the known forex expert sees a small rally in Q1 but afterwards, a fall of the Euro is expected. The article contains predictions for other currencies as well.
- Eric deCarbonnel: Sees the dollar’s collapse in 2010 due to a colossal food crisis which will devastate the United States. In his apocalyptic scenario, the world will run out of food and this will cause global turmoil which will send the US economy plunging – and the dollar with it.
- Greg Group: Advises to buy the dollar and sell the Euro in 2010. He sees continues dependence on the US dollar, especially from China, and isn’t too hopeful about Europe. In an article in Seeking Alpha, he examines both sides of the Atlantic, sees EUR/USD falling, but also advises caution.
- Casey Stubbs: All in all, Casey sees the dollar’s momentum for 2010. Looking at the near term, the current range will probably dominate this pair’s trading.
What do you think?
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The 4th is very apocalyptic indeed…
I think Euro has become very expensive and that affects Europe exportation, I try to keep it simple, The world needs a stronger dollar for 2010, and US is ready for it.
But I’m such a noob and let’s see what happens.
Your blog is amazing!
Thanks Xavi!
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The last crisis had it sources in bad finance.
USA and Eurozone were hitted in the same way but USA has reacted printing money and increasing deficit.
This two thing with interest rates near zero are fundamentals against the USD too strong to be overcomed overnight.
Without surprises in Euro Zone, a real reversal of the main trend will start only after:
1. withdral of the US economic stymulus;
2. withdral of much of the money printed in the last year;
3. increase interest rates;
4. a clear general economy improvment.
Plus I don’t think the government of a strong indebted nation have the interest that its currency became stronger; its quite natural.
DOOMSDAY for EURO, the currency is under severe pressure from the PIGS of Eurozone (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain), French and Germans may break the Euro to go back to their previous currencies..GOOD for Almighty US Dollar…
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eur-usd average for the year 2010 will be 1.45. Be carefull on this, us markets will suffer the inflation.