“The growing government crisis in Germany got a ceasefire today. However, the pure fact that the interior minister has given the chancellor a kind of ultimatum shows once again how stressed the situation is,” argue ING analysts.
Key quotes
“It is probably an almost normal political phenomenon that the longer a politician is in office the higher the number of swan songs will get. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has survived and managed several difficult situations during her almost 13 years in office. However, most of these crises were at the European stage. The current one is at the domestic stage. And even worse, it is within her own coalition. Angela Merkel’s political survival has never been more at risk than currently.“
“The only upside of this severe political crisis in Germany could be that Merkel will now be forced to give away more than currently expected on other policy areas to the rest of Europe. Her domestic fragility could mean that she will be somewhat more willing to push on with Eurozone reforms – even though it is questionable whether this would be in the CSU’s interest.”
“An entire range of scenarios looks possible, ranging from a muddling through, CSU budging or a strengthened European Merkel to a fall of the chancellor, replaced by Wolfgang Schäuble, a full collapse of the government and new elections. We will not join current speculations but one thing is clear: the hope that a strong German government can lead further reforms in the Eurozone has taken a severe hit.”
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