EUR/USD Sep. 2 – Riding Higher in Uptrend Channel

EUR/USD made a sharp move up and settled in a new region, within the uptrend channel. Will it stick to the channel until the Non-Farm Payrolls?  Here is a quick update on fundamentals, technicals  and community trends.

eur usd september 2 forecast

EUR/USD within uptrend channel, that began last week. Click to enlarge.

EUR/USD Technicals

  • Asian session:  After yesterday’s sharp move upwards, EUR/USD relaxed in the Asian session.
  • Current Range is between 1.2770 to 1.2830.
  • Further levels: Below, 1.2722, 1.2610, 1.2460, 1.2330 and 1.2150. Above  1.2840, 1.2930, 1.30 and 1.3110.
  • Uptrend channel dominates: EUR/USD trades in an uptrend channel. Uptrend support began from the lows it reached on August 24th through a low on August 25th. Uptrend resistance began on a swing high on August 24th and was formed on August 26th. After losing it two days ago, EUR/USD returned to this range, and even tested the top limit with yesterday’s swing move to 1.2855 – exactly at uptrend resistance.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

All times are GMT. Most important events emphasized.

  • 9:00: Revised GDP. Exp. +2.2%.
  • 9:00: PPI. Exp. +0.2%.
  • 11:45: Rate decision. Expectations are for an unchanged interest rate of 1% in the Euro-zone. The focus will be on the the wording of the statement – if Jean-Claude Trichet emphasizes concerns and more stimulus – Euro weakens. If the talks are about the exit strategy, Euro rises.
  • 12:30: US Unemployment Claims: Exp. 476K
  • 12:30: US Revised Nonfarm Productivity. Exp. -1.9%.
  • 13:00: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies. The markets always rock on his words, even many hours after he finished speaking.
  • 14:00: US Pending Home Sales. Exp. -1.3%.
  • 14:00 US Factory Orders. Exp. +0.4%.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Market is in risk aversive mood. This means that bad US indicators are dollar positive, although devastating figures that we’ve seen in recent days just shocked the markets.
  • The 1.2610 line is critical on the downside.
  • This is a busy week, with the Non-Farm Payrolls at the end of it. Very busy day today, that begins with the rate decision in Europe, continues with the rlated press conference by the ECB at the same time of the US jobless claims – the last hint for the NFP. And then, Bernanke takes over and more data is released. Very choppy trading expected.
  • Currensee Community: 56% are Short, 44% are long. These are 967 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.

Note – This is a new and still experimental section on Forex Crunch. It’s still in development.

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EUR/USD Aug. 30 – Tight Trading in New Uptrend Channel

EUR/USD began this busy week with continued tense range trading, in a new uptrend channel that formed. Will it manage to break higher or collapse again below the channel? Here’s a quick update on fundamentals, technicals  and community trends.

EUR/USD Outlook – August 30 – September 3

The calendar is packed for the Euro in the upcoming week, with the rate decision being the highlight. Here’s an outlook for European events and an updated technical analysis for the ranging EUR/USD. EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge: Echoes from the downwards revision of US GDP and also [...]

EUR/USD Outlook – August 23-27

After losing the uptrend support line, another busy week expects Euro traders, with many important surveys due this week. Here’s an outlook for the 9 events that will shape the Euro’s trading, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD, now at lower ground. EUR/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge: The [...]

EUR/USD Drops Under Long Term Uptrend Support

EUR/USD broke under the long-term uptrend support line that began at its year to date low on June 7th and extended up to now. A sharp fall sent the pair significantly lower. The move still needs to be confirmed. Update on the breakout Update 9:55 GMT: EUR/USD is now at 1.2710.

EUR/USD Outlook – August 16-20

After a terrible week for the Euro, it now expects a relatively calm week, with the ZEW Economic Sentiment being the highlight. Here’s an outlook for the European events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD, now at much lower ground. EUR/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: Excellent GDP [...]

Euro Rising Before a New Fall?

EUR USD has taken serious damage after the Fed decision and bottomed out at a lower support level. Now, the pair is on the rise. After losing the steep uptrend channel, the direction seems down. The Fed decision on Tuesday evening was digested on Wednesday, and the results were devastating. Fear of a global slowdown, [...]

EUR/USD Outlook – August 9-13

After riding the Non-Farm Payrolls, a busy week expects Euro traders, with the best kept for last – GDP figures on Friday. Here’s an outlook for the European events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. EUR/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge: The Euro enjoyed the reports that the US [...]

EUR/USD Close To Uptrend Support Before NFP

EUR/USD, that enjoyed a sharp rally in a steep uptrend channel, is flirting with the bottom edge of this channel just before the critical release of the NFP. Technical update on this pair.

EUR/USD Outlook – August 2-6

The rate decision stand in the center of a week full with economic indicators. Here’s an outlook for the European events and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: The Euro edged up in the past week, but did it with hesitation. It’s [...]

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