USD/JPY: Trading the US CB Consumer Confidence January 2012

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 5,000 households regarding their opinion of the economic conditions and the overall economic climate. Its release  often has a strong impact on market prices.

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for USD/JPY.

Published on Tuesday at 15:00 GMT.

Indicator Background

The CB Consumer Confidence Index provides critical readings about consumer confidence and spending. Each month’s reading is carefully scrutinized by analysts and traders looking for an indication of which direction the economy is headed. A higher reading than the  market forecast is bullish for the dollar.

The index  rose to 64.5 last month,  easily beating the market forecast of 58.5. This  figure was the index’s best performance since April 2011. The markets are confident that the index will continue to rise,  predicting a reading of 68.2 for  this month. Will the index be able to meet the market’s high expectations?

 Sentiments and levels

Japan is facing an all-time high trade deficit, and the  economic  forecasts  for 2012 are not promising, as the global slowdown continues.  Meanwhile, the US economy continues to improve, so there is room for the dollar to move higher against the yen. The overall sentiment is  therefore bullish on USD/JPY towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 78.30, 77.50, 77, 76.60,76.25, 75.57, and 75.

5 Scenarios    

1. Within expectations: 65.0 to 71.0: In such a case, USD/JPY is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
2. Above expectations: 71.1 to 74.0: An unexpected higher reading can send USD/JPY above one resistance level.
3. Well above expectations: Above 74.0: A sharp increase in consumer confidence could propel the pair above two resistance levels or more.
4. Below expectations:  62.0 to 64.9: A reading lower than forecast could send USD/JPY below one support level.
5. Well below expectations: Below 62.0:   Given the strengthening US economy, this scenario is unlikely. In this outcome, the pair would likely drop below two or more support levels.

For more about the USD/JPY, see the USD to JPY forecast.