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China has all the reasons to wish for a second Trump turn – the president’s self-centeredness, obscure business interests, the potential of choking Taiwan after doing so to Hong Kong and opportunities that the incumbent creates by abandoning America’s post-WWII role, FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam reports.

Key quotes

“Trump can be bought with soybeans: Trump struck a deal with China – Phase One – which included targets for buying soybeans and other products. According to former National Security Adviser John Bolton, Trump pleaded his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to buy agricultural products to help him win. China prefers a president whose buttons’ can be pushed.” 

“Businessman Trump has ties with China: The Bank of China helped finance the 1290 Avenue of the Americas building in which Trump owns a significant stake. Another state-owned entity is a tenant at Trump tower. The lack of transparency of the Trump Organization – and his refusal to release his tax returns – are probably there for a reason. He potentially has other secrets to hide. China has personal pressure points in addition to political ones.” 

“Taiwan after Hong Kong and North Korea: If Trump wins a second term, it may aim for a more significant move – against Taiwan. Recent statements talk about a ‘peaceful reunification’ with the island that broke away from Communist China in the mid-20th century. Given Trump’s North Korea and Hong Kong policies, Beijing may seize the next distraction to bring Tapei under its rule.” 

“Biden worked to isolate China: The then-Vice President worked with his boss Barack Obama on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) – a trade agreement including 12 countries around the world’s largest ocean. The accord included around 40% of the world’s GDP – with one substantial exclusion, China. The goal was to isolate the world’s second-largest economy and set standards that China would later have to adhere to. Trump canceled the multilateral deal as one of his first actions in office, opting for a bilateral accord with Beijing. Biden could reverse that.” 

“Trump pushes Europe toward China: While Europeans suspect Beijing’s interests and disdain its authoritarian regime, the lack of strong backing from America makes weaker countries more vulnerable to China’s influence. Another term for Trump may encourage further soft-power and aggressive economic moves into the old continent. Yet if Biden, who has good ties with European allies, enters the White House, Atlantic ties could strengthen and push China out.”