- The US Dollar is on the back foot at the wake of the new month.
- There are several reasons for the downfall.
- This may continue if the Non-Farm Payrolls report misses expectations.
Here are five reasons for the downfall of the Dollar:
1) Optimism on trade
US President Donald Trump said that he had a very good conversation with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. The leaders of the world’s largest economies are set to meet later this month in Buenos Aires. After markets tumbled on trade tensions, among other issues, hope for a deal helps push stocks higher.
And when stocks rise, the safe-haven dollar loses demand.
2) Disappointing data
After the ADP Non-Farm Payrolls beat on Wednesday, the drop of the ISM Manufacturing PMI to 57.7 points disappointed. This slightly lowers the chance for a rate hike, thus allowing another decline in the dollar. Some sectors complained about tariffs as well.
3) Brexit hopes
The Times of London reported that the UK and the EU reached a deal on the financial services sector, a critical part of the UK economy. While official later denied the publication, they did express hope. Both sides are reporting progress. Details on the Irish border, the worst sticking point, are still lacking.
Nevertheless, optimism about Brexit not only lifted the pound but also carried the Euro higher. It also supports stocks, adding to the risk-on atmosphere and weighing on the greenback.
4) Turn of the month
The US Dollar gained quite a bit of ground in October, and it is not uncommon for trends to reverse in the new month. The moves began late on Wednesday and were attributed to end-of-month action, but they continued into today’s trading.
5) Mid-Terms are coming
The US Mid-Term elections are only five days away. As we said earlier in the week, the USD can stall as the Democrats are consolidating their gains. If they win the House, they could halt some of Trump’s policies which have strengthened the US Dollar.
More: What the US mid-term elections mean for currencies: everything you need to know
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