The US dollar is weaker on the very disappointing gain in US non-farm jobs: only 120K. The small drop in the unemployment rate to 8.2% is “blamed” for the drop in the participation rate. But not all is bad in the US jobs report. Here’s why it could be only a temporary pause. Participation: Let’s start with the drop in the participation rate: it dropped from 63.9% in March to 63.8% in February. It was at 63.7% in January. Those are seasonally adjusted numbers. Well, warm weather in cold months can always be “blamed” for better seasonally adjusted numbers. Right? Not this time: the not-seasonally adjusted number remained unchanged between February and March, at 63.6%. See more official data here. Not-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate drops: This is a bigger drop, from 8.7% to 8.4%. Yet again, the doubts about warm weather skewing the data are in doubt. Also, let’s remember that the headline number did fall from 8.3% to 8.2%. Real unemployment rate drops: U-6 is a figure that counts the “total unemployed”. It dropped from 14.9% to 14.5% (adjusted) or from 15.6% to 14.8% not-adjusted. This wider figure undermines the doubts in the drop of the regular unemployment rate, which depend on the participation rate. This is the full official definition: Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force Number of Involuntary Part-time Workers Fall : These are people who work part time because their hours were cut or they weren’t able to find a full time job. In times of weak recovery, the number of such part time workers rise, without a rise in full time jobs. This time, the figure fell from 8.119 million to 7.672 million. Quite a fall. This is seasonally adjusted. The not-seasonally adjusted number dropped from 8.455 million to 7.867 million. Revisions: Recent history has usually shown upside revisions. While this time it was very marginal: only +4K, it exceeded 60K last month. Upside revisions were seen more than downside ones. Note that the ADP report for the private sector showed a gain of 209K jobs in March, much higher than +121K than the official report for the private sector. There’s always a chance that ADP will be revised to the downside, or that the reports will remain far apart. Yet again, there’s a good chance of an upwards revision of today’s poor data. What do you think? Is today’s disappointment the beginning of a downturn, or a one time event? The dollar weakened following the release, but the losses were limited, especially against the euro. For more on EUR/USD, see the euro to dollar forecast. Further reading: Fed Doves Could Easily Return to Rule the Roost – They certainly have their chance now… Yohay Elam Yohay Elam Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts. Yohay's Google Profile View All Post By Yohay Elam Opinions share Read Next Forex Articles for the Weekend Yohay Elam 10 years The US dollar is weaker on the very disappointing gain in US non-farm jobs: only 120K. The small drop in the unemployment rate to 8.2% is "blamed" for the drop in the participation rate. But not all is bad in the US jobs report. Here's why it could be only a temporary pause. Participation: Let's start with the drop in the participation rate: it dropped from 63.9% in March to 63.8% in February. It was at 63.7% in January. Those are seasonally adjusted numbers. Well, warm weather in cold months can always be "blamed" for better seasonally adjusted numbers. 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