Next week is a busy week in the United Kingdom. According to analysts from Danske Bank, the monthly GDP figure for July will give a first indication on how Q3 have fared and they see the Bank of England meeting as a rather uneventful meeting with no updated projections and no press conference.
Key Quotes:
“As per usual, look out for political news on Brexit. In terms of data releases, the key release is the monthly GDP indicator for July, which will give us more insight into how the economy started Q3. We think GDP is growing on average between 0.1%-0.2% (implying a quarterly GDP growth rate around 0.3-0.4%) with our point estimate being 0.1% m/m. That said, the series is quite volatile.”
“We also get the UK jobs report on Tuesday. We estimate the unemployment rate (3M average) was unchanged at 4.0%. Average weekly earnings excluding bonuses (3M average) surprised on the upside last time, so we think the monthly increase will decline but it should still be sufficient to lift the annual growth rate to 2.8% y/y from 2.7% y/y.”
“The Bank of England meeting on Thursday is probably less interesting, as it is one of the interim meetings without updated projections and no press conference. After the August hike, we believe the BoE is on hold until next year. We do not think it is necessary for the Bank of England to send any new signals at the moment.”
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