Mohamed Aly El-Erian, the chief economic adviser at Allianz and former CEO and co-chief investment officer of PIMCO, is of the opinion that Trump’s trade antics are likely to lead to fairer but still free global trade.
Key points (Source: Reuters)
There is a 1-in-4 chance of a full-blown global trade war leading to a hard landing in China and a global recession.
There is significant scope for more volatility in emerging markets due to potential forced selling on the back of stop-losses.
Contagion risks, though limited for now, could increase “if bad technicals become bad economics and finance,” with the least liquid markets being in the greatest danger
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