Aussie Employment report overview
Early Thursday at 00:30 GMT sees triplicate employment data from Australia, which could be shaping up to be the major reading of the year for the AUD/USD. With Aussie interest rates suspended in central bank comatose, Australian economic data is the primary driver for AUD reactions in the charts, and broader markets are forecasting a steady reading for today’s Unemployment reading, with September’s Employment Change expected to come in at 15 thousand (last 44 thousand), while Unemployment is seen holding steady at 5.3%, with the Participation Rate also seen on hold at 65.7%; analysts at ANZ are slightly more bearish than broader market estimates, calling for an undershoot in the Employment Change: “we expect a more moderate rise in employment in September after the 44k rise in August. Labour market leading indicators are more mixed: ANZ Job Ads have levelled out, but hiring intentions in the business surveys still point to ongoing solid expansion in employment. We look for a rise of 10k and an unchanged unemployment rate of 5.3%.”
How could it affect the AUD/USD?
The Aussie is clipping into the downside ahead of the Australian jobs data, and the pair is knocking into near-term support from the 200-hour moving average, which is resting just south of the 0.7100 handle, and according to FXStreet’s own Valeria Bednarik, there could be more declines on the table: “the pair heads into the Asian session trading right around the 38.2% retracement of the latest daily slide and near the mentioned daily low of 0.7110, while the 61.8% retracement of the same declines comes a couple of pips above the mentioned daily high, indicating that the pair may well enter in a bearish spiral after being rejected from such resistance. In the 4 hours chart, the pair broke below its 20 SMA, while technical indicators enter bearish territory, also indicating additional slides ahead, with a break below 0.7085 now opening doors for a retest of the year low.”
Support levels: 0.7110 0.7085 0.7040
Resistance levels: 0.7160 0.7195 0.7220
Key notes
AUD/USD analysis: holding above 0.7100 ahead of Australian employment data
AUDUSD Analysis: Strong bearish signals today
AUDUSD Showing First Signs of A Bearish Continuation – Elliott wave Analysis
About the Aussie Employment Change
The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
About the Aussie Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate release by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate hikes, indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).
About the Aussie Participation Rate
The participation rate, released by Australian Statistician, is the percentage of the total number of people of labour-force age (15 years and over) that is in the labour force (either working or looking for a job).
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