Justin Smirk, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggests that Westpac’s forecast for the September quarter headline CPI of Australian economy is 0.5%qtr which will see the annual pace ease to 2.0%yr from 2.1%yr.
Key Quotes
“Westpac’s forecast leaves the two quarter annualised pace at 1.6%yr.”
“The September quarter is a seasonally strong quarter with the ABS projecting a seasonal factor of +0.30ppt. However, this is larger than the average of the June quarter seasonal factor for the previous two years (average 0.27ppt) so there is a risk that this estimate will be revised downward.”
“Core inflation is forecast to print 0.3%qtr (0.31% at two decimal places) seeing the annual pace ease to 1.8%yr from 1.9%yr. The trimmed mean AND weighted median are both forecast to rise 0.31%. The two quarter annualised pace of core inflation eases back to 1.5%yr from 2.0%yr putting inflation momentum below the RBA’s target band.”
“Core inflation remains below the bottom of the RBA target band due moderating housing costs.”
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