Analysts at Danske Bank are not expecting any new signals from Norges Bank at the monetary policy meeting today and it’s an ‘intermediate meeting’ where the only release is the Executive Board’s statement of the decision (no press conference).
Key Quotes
“Usually, the threshold is very high for Norges Bank to give new signals at these meetings. As it is only a month since the last monetary policy meeting, there has been no new information that would indicate that Norges Bank is deviating from its plan of ‘gradual interest rate increases’.”
“The factors that usually contribute to changes in interest rates have gone in slightly different directions. Growth in the domestic economy has been slightly weaker than expected, while inflation has been slightly higher.”
“The import-weighted NOK is only marginally stronger than assumed, and even this must be seen in the context of the fact that the oil price is somewhat higher than expected.”
“Overall, we therefore expect Norges Bank to repeat the message that interest rates will be raised again during Q1, which is in line with market pricing.”
“FX. As it is widely expected that NB will not deliver any news on Thursday, we do not expect any moves in NOK FX markets upon announcement. Indeed, option markets also price in very limited price action. We remain short EUR/NOK.”
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