Analysts at ANZ note that permanent and long-term net migration inflows of NZ economy rose by 40 in October to 4,660 (seasonally adjusted), as the recent trend of lifting departures pulled back to more than offset a fall in arrivals.
Key Quotes
“The most interesting feature of today’s release was the complete reversal of the recent trending up in New Zealand citizens heading to Australia. These were down 320 from last month, pulling back to levels last recorded in March.”
“On face value, this provides some validity to the unexpected fall in New Zealand’s unemployment rate (to 3.9%) in Q3, suggesting the relative strength between both economies (and demand for labour) remains finely balanced. That said, these data can be volatile (the removal of departure cards from 5 November may end up adding to that) meaning it’s too early to call a change in the trans-Tasman trend.”
“Overall, the ongoing easing trend in net migration flows continued, with October’s print coming in below the three-month moving average. At 61,750, annual net inflows are now down 14.7% since the cycle peaked in July 2017.”
“Monthly arrivals fell by 280 to 10,460 (sa), driven by a 210 drop in ‘other’ citizens and a 100 fall in New Zealand citizens returning. Australian arrivals increased a touch. Total departures fell by 320 to 5,500, driven by fewer kiwis heading across the ditch.”
“Short-term visitor arrivals rose 4.0% m/m (sa) to be up 5.4% y/y (sa), in what seems to be shaping up to be a solid tourism season.”
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