According to reporting by Bloomberg, analysts at Nomura are cautioning that CHina’s current rate of exports heading for the US could begin to unwind in January following a fresh round of tariff rates from the US government.
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In September, U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a 10 percent tariff on $200 billion of imports from China and pledged to raise the duty to 25 percent at the beginning of next year, sparking a rush to ship goods to U.S. customers ahead of the increase.
That will probably boost Chinese export growth in this quarter by 1.8 percentage points and overall economic growth by 0.2 percentage points in nominal terms, the Nomura economists, led by Lu Ting, said in a report published Thursday. They estimated that export growth in the first quarter of 2019 will probably be 5.6 percentage points lower than in the fourth quarter — and economic growth 0.7 percentage points lower — as a result.
The report pointed to a surge of exports in categories targeted by the U.S. administration, and cross-checked it against shipping rates quoted at China’s major ports.
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