After a strong first half of the year, analysts at ING expect a very weak 3Q GDP report from Sweden on Thursday.
Key Quotes
“We expect only 0.2% quarter-on-quarter growth, and the risks to that are mainly to the downside.”
“Some of this weakness is temporary – a new tax on cars came into force in July, which caused significant front-loading of car sales (boosting 2Q GDP at the expense of a weaker 3Q). But near-term indicators point to a broader slowdown over the autumn, with the rapid contraction of new construction, in particular, likely to weigh on growth.”
“In that context, the November Economic Sentiment Indicator (on Wednesday) will also be an important data release, as it speaks to the current momentum in the economy. If both the 3Q figure and the November ESI disappoint this would reduce the chance of a Riksbank hike in December.”
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