Brexit negotiations will continue to be high on the agenda with an European Union summit on Sunday and uncertainty about political backing in the United Kingdom, explained analysts at Danske Bank.
Key Quotes:
“There are no important data releases out of the UK next week but all eyes are on the political development and Brexit anyway. The first obstacle is the EU summit on Sunday where the EU leaders have to approve the final agreement (both the withdrawal agreement and the political declaration on the future relationship). We expect the approval to be relatively straightforward despite Spain’s opposition due to the Gibraltar issue, which remains largely unresolved (remember the approval does not require unanimity but ‘just’ a strong qualified majority (20 of the 27 member states representing 65% of the EU27 population).”
“We maintain the view that the real challenge is the vote in the House of Commons in mid-December (10 or 11 December has been mentioned). Otherwise, the two main things to look out for in the near term are whether there will be a ‘no confidence’ vote in Theresa May and whether the supporting party, Ulster’s DUP, will pull its support for the government. With respect to the former, it is proving more difficult for the Brexit hardliners to secure the 48 ‘no confidence’ letters than they had imagined. With respect to the latter, the DUP chose to abstain from the budget votes (or even voted against the government) earlier this week, which is against the
confidence and supply deal between May and the DUP. The big question we need an answer to is whether this is just a warning shot, or whether the DUP is indeed about to pull its overall support.”
Share
